000 AXNT20 KNHC 081734 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN JUL 08 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 20N21W TO 12N23W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE AXIS LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-19N BETWEEN 18W-24W. A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 28N53W TO 17M58W MOVING NE AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SAHARAN DUST IS ALSO EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT REACHING 55W. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 22N89W TO 14N90W MOVING W AT 10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE FAR WRN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. AREAS OF CENTRAL AMERICA ARE RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL AND ARE AT RISK FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 87W-90W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N-20N BETWEEN 83W-92W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM SENEGAL AT 15N17W TO 11N20W TO 10N24W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 10N24W TO 7N40W. A WEAK 1012 MB SURFACE LOW BREAKS THE ITCZ ANALYZED NEAR 7N43W. THE ITCZ REFORMS SW OF THE LOW NEAR 5N44W AND CONTINUES WSW TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 8N-11N BETWEEN 17W-23W...FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 24W-39W...AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 39W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N FLORIDA NEAR 30N83W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SEE ABOVE. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS CENTERED OVER LOUISIANA PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO... LOUISIANA...AND E TEXAS N OF 28N BETWEEN 88W-97W. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE TO ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN BAY OF CAMPECHE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NW GULF OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE TROPICAL WAVE IS PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. SEE ABOVE. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...W PANAMA...COSTA RICA...AND S NICARAGUA FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 80W-86W. A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W. 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W CARIBBEAN NEAR 17N83W. CONSIDERABLE UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS ARE W OF 77W. EXPECT...CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... TWO TROPICAL WAVES ARE OVER THE ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. ELSEWHERE...RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS AND S FLORIDA FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 78W-81W. A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR THE AZORES AT 41N33W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH ALONG 32N50W 29N74W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 29N51W PRODUCING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N-27N BETWEEN 51W-57W. EXPECT...CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA