000 AXNT20 KNHC 071046 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUL 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1035 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 23N47W TO 12N44W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTICED ON TPW IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 25N80W TO 11N85W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. AN EARLIER SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED A WELL DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COVER THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN BASINS W OF 80W...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA S OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W. FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PICTURES OF THE DAY REVEALED A BROAD AREA OF MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE FAR ERN TROPICAL ATLC...ASSOCIATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE WEST AFRICA. THE WAVE AXIS WILL BE ADDED TO THE SURFACE ANALYSIS TODAY...AS MODEL DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS BECOME MORE CONCLUSIVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 18N16W ALONG 10N21W 8N30W TO 7N41W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA E OF 27W FROM 6N-14N. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA DISCUSSED ABOVE. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 50-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA TYPE RIDGE COVERS THE CONUS THIS MORNING ...GENERATING EASTERLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE NW BASIN NEAR 29N93W AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN NEAR 28N83W. A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS NOTED OFF THE COAST OF LOUISIANA ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY. THESE SHOWERS COULD LINGER THROUGHOUT THE DAY BEFORE LIFTING N BY SAT NIGHT. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY COVER THE SW AND NW BASINS W OF 80W ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS. WHILE THE RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW BASIN COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN...THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA...PROVOKING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-25 KT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BETWEEN 70W-77W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA S OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A BROAD AND STRONG 1031 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NNW OF THE AZORES EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WRN ATLC KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FAIR WEATHER IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE WEST AFRICA TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA