000 AXNT20 KNHC 070555 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUL 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS ANALYZED FORM 23N45W TO 12N41W MOVING W AT ABOUT 15 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTICED ON TPW IMAGERY. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OBSERVED DUE TO SAHARAN DUST EMBEDDED IN THE WAVE ENVIRONMENT. TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 22N81W TO 10N82W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERING THE WRN CARIBBEAN TO CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC TURNING AROUND THE WAVE AXIS. SCATTERED HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY COVER THE SW AND NW CARIBBEAN BASINS W OF 77W...AS WELL AS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA S OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS SW FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W ALONG 10N20W 9N30W TO 7N42W...WHERE THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION COVERS THE AREA E OF 27W FROM 6N-14N. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE WITHIN 50-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL OMEGA TYPE RIDGE COVERS THE CONUS THIS MORNING ...GENERATING EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE GULF ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THIS PATTERN IS PROVIDING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC SURFACE FLOW AROUND A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS CENTERED OVER THE NW BASIN NEAR 28N93W AND OVER THE FAR EASTERN BASIN NEAR 27N83W. RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN GULF WATERS EARLIER ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS NOW DISSIPATED. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE FAR SE GULF AND FLORIDA STRAITS. THE MOISTURE AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THIS REGION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AS A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY COVER THE SW AND NW BASINS W OF 77W ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDING FROM WRN CUBA TO CENTRAL AMERICA ACROSS ERN HONDURAS. WHILE THE RAINSHOWER ACTIVITY OVER THE NW BASIN COULD SEE SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN...THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW BASIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONSTANT AND SLOWLY MOVE INLAND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA PROVOKING FLOODING AND POSSIBLE MUDSLIDES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN ARE EXPERIENCING MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER DUE TO A COMBINATION OF DRY AIR ALOFT AND SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THESE REGIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN. EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN REACHING 25 KT IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS AND NRN COASTAL WATERS OF CUBA S OF 25N BETWEEN 72W-80W. THIS AREA OF CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN EXTENSION OF A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS MOVING ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. A BROAD AND STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NW OF THE AZORES EXTENDS A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WRN ATLC KEEPING FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE FAIR WEATHER IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE WEST AFRICA TO THE ERN CARIBBEAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA