000 AXNT20 KNHC 061052 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUL 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 23N40W 18N39W 12N38W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 16N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N37W. THE CLASSIC INVERTED-V FOR THIS WAVE SHOWS UP WELL IN THE SATELLITE IMAGERY. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 13N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W JUST TO THE NORTH OF GAMBIA...TO 10N27W AND 9N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N35W TO 7N44W AND 7N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N TO THE EAST OF 22W...ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 36W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 55W AND 63W...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO TRINIDAD AND EXTREME NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 25N45W...TO 19N49W TO A 15N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N56W. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH GOES FROM 27N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO A 25N75W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR THE BAHAMAS...THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO 25N91W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 93W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN ALONG 100W/101W FOR THE LAST 24 TO 48 HOURS OR SO...FROM 19N IN MEXICO TO 31N IN TEXAS...CONTINUES TO BE STRETCHED MORE AND MORE NORTHWARD WITH TIME. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 94W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE MEXICO COASTAL PLAINS FROM THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC TO 19N TO 23N...AND FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 100W AND 101W INLAND. OTHER CLUSTERS OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE INLAND...FROM 20N TO 29N BETWEEN 103W AND 109W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 28N75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W...BEYOND THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 24N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...PASSING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA AND EASTERN JAMAICA...TO 13N79W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 15N BETWEEN 66W AND 83W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 76W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W...BEYOND THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA... INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE EAST CENTRAL COASTAL PLAINS OF NICARAGUA TO COASTAL COLOMBIA NEAR 10N76W...AND IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO THE NORTH OF 6N TO THE EAST OF 80W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO 5N BETWEEN 72W AND 73W...AND FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W IN COLOMBIA. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET THAT ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 33N47W TO A 27N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N56W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 225 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 29N24W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 16N36W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 10N37W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 25N45W...TO 19N49W TO A 15N50W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 8N56W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N45W TO 28N61W...PASSING JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA...REACHING A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N84W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 14N TO THE WEST OF 53W...AND FOR THE 20 KNOT WINDS WITH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE AS THE WAVE MOVES WESTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT