000 AXNT20 KNHC 040603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUL 04 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N21W 10N23W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ON TOP OF THE AREA THROUGH WHICH THIS WAVE IS PASSING. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 21N22W 15N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ITCZ CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 24W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N57W 15N58W 10N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 56W AND 63W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 12N TO 21N. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 13N78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N24W 10N31W AND 7N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N41W TO 6N47W AND 6N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 8N TO 12N BETWEEN 17W AND 30W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 12N TO THE EAST OF 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 7N TO 14N BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A GULF OF CALIFORNIA 27N111W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 103W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO SOUTHERN MEXICO BETWEEN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC AND 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT IS BETWEEN THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 102W...AND IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 27N72W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N86W...CONTINUING TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF OF MEXICO COAST. THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 35N52W...TO A 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...EVENTUALLY REACHES WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN MANY SECTIONS OF CUBA AND BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS AND 82W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS...SIX HOURS AGO OR SO. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 25N73W ATLANTIC OCEAN CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA AND JAMAICA...TO 13N78W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 81W FROM 12N TO 21N. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 13N78W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA... TO 8N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 10N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN COLOMBIA TO THE NORTH OF 7N...ON EITHER SIDE OF PANAMA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 79W AND 81W...AND FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 84W AND 86W MOSTLY IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COASTAL WATERS OF COSTA RICA. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 81W AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF EASTERN NICARAGUA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W...AND FOR THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS FORECAST IN 24 HOURS TO BE ALONG 67W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 35N52W TO 31N51W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS THAT GOES FROM 31N51W TO 29N64W 28N70W...BECOMING A TROUGH AGAIN FROM 28N70W TO A 25N73W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MOST IF NOT ALL THE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS TAKING PLACE FROM 17N TO 24N BETWEEN 65W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME RAINSHOWERS MAY REMAIN IN THIS SAME AREA. A SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N67W TO 30N74W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N63W TO 28N70W 28N79W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. IT IS POSSIBLE TO FIND MULTIPLE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERS WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N45W 29N46W 26N46W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 33N49W TO 28N56W...THROUGH 27N72W...ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS BEYOND CENTRAL FLORIDA... TO A 1017 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OF 12N 35W AND 45W...AND FOR THE 58W TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT