000 AXNT20 KNHC 021210 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT MON JUL 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N43W 10N40W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ITCZ FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W. A COMPARATIVELY LOW-AMPLITUDE ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N52W 7N50W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 11N BETWEEN 48W AND 56W. THIS WAVE IS LOSING ITS DEFINITION WITH TIME. IT EVENTUALLY WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA AND IT IS MORE PROBABLE THAT IT WILL NOT BE TRACKABLE ANY MORE AFTER ANOTHER 24 HOURS. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST OF A 16N76W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OR MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 9N20W AND 7N32W. THE ITCZ IS NONDESCRIPT. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 17W...FROM 8N TO 11N BETWEEN 39W AND 46W...FROM THE COASTS OF SURINAME AND FRENCH GUIANA TO 8N BETWEEN 50W AND 56W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND TROUGH...COVER MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA... TO A GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SQUEEZED INTO THE SPACE THAT IS BETWEEN THE MEXICO CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH THE TROUGH AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC CYCLONIC CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING DURING THE LAST EIGHT HOURS OR SO IN MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 23N...IN EASTERN GUATEMALA NEAR SOUTHERN BELIZE...IN WESTERN HONDURAS...AND POSSIBLY IN EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 23N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 92W. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS OCCURRING IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GEORGIA ABOUT NINE HOURS AGO. THIS PRECIPITATION WAS ASSOCIATED WITH AN EAST-TO-WEST ORIENTED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT WAS CUTTING ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES IN GEORGIA WARMED SUFFICIENTLY ENOUGH. THE PRECIPITATION DISSIPATED. BROKEN TO OVERCAST CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS HAVE RUSHED SOUTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA AND INTO THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 77W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 88W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE SOUTHWESTERNMOST POINT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT ORIGINATES IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N58W REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS/THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL... BETWEEN CUBA AND LA ISLA DE LA JUVENTUD...BETWEEN ANDROS ISLAND AND CUBA...AND IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N86W. THE RIDGE EVENTUALLY CURVES NORTHWESTWARD TO SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. NO 20 KNOT WINDS AND NO 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS ARE OBSERVED AND/OR PART OF THE FORECAST FOR THE MOMENT. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 21N60W...TO PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...AND THEN TO A 16N76W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 13N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W TO THE SOUTH OF 18N. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA THAT IS ABOUT 360 NM TO THE EAST OF A 16N76W UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AND ACCOMPANYING CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. UPPER LEVEL SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE TOP OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 64W AND 70W. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME OR MOST OF THIS PRECIPITATION MAY NOT BE RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N76W IN COLOMBIA TO 9N81W IN PANAMA...TO NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 60 NM OFFSHORE ALONG 81W JUST TO THE NORTH OF PANAMA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 84W. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 70W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE EAST OF 82W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO 25N62W...TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE EAST OF PUERTO RICO. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 70W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 32N50W 27N52W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 24N TO 34N BETWEEN 50W AND 52W. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 33N37W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 30W AND 50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 33N39W 28N41W 25N42W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 36W AND 42W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 34N50W TO 30N58W 28N72W... ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...TO A 1018 MB EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N86W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 74W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT