000 AXNT20 KNHC 301117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N54W 15N56W 11N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 14N TO 16N BETWEEN 54W AND 56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTS OF SENEGAL AND GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N17W TO 8N30W 6N39W 10N44W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N44W TO 11N47W AND 9N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 18W AND 21W WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 21W AND 47W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH BERMUDA TO 28N72W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND AND ABACO ISLAND IN THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF FLORIDA...TO 26N84W IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 22N86W IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT...THAT IS CONNECTED TO THE REMNANT LOW PRESSURE OF DEBBY. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 28N65W TO 27N71W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N61W TO 27N70W 24N80W 23N89W. THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DIGGING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO A 27N99W TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... INTO MEXICO NEAR 22N103W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE AND LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN MEXICO FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 98W AND THE MEXICO EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST...TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE WEST OF 94W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 30N93W 23N93W 19N95W...BEYOND 16N98W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE IN THE WATERS THAT ARE TO THE WEST OF 90W. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS COMPARATIVELY WEAK. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 29N96W 21N87W DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 22N58W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 18N62W JUST TO THE NORTH OF BARBUDA...TO JAMAICA... 18N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS SPINNING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE AREA FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND 80W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 18N IN CENTRAL AMERICA BETWEEN 83W AND 90W. RESULTANT AND BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE SOUTH OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...MOVING AROUND A MEDIAN 15N69W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 56W AND 64W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA AND COLOMBIA TO THE SOUTH OF 11N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. OTHER RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W AT THE NICARAGUA COAST. THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA FINDS ITSELF IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE IN GENERAL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 9 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W. 20 KNOT WINDS ALSO WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 85W INCLUDING IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS...WITH A 24 HOUR TROPICAL WAVE TO BE ALONG 61W/62W...AND IN A FEW OTHER AREAS EITHER TO THE EAST OF 65W OR TO THE WEST OF 65W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 60W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N35W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 26N38W AND 24N40W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N31W 29N35W 26N39W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 31W AND 38W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 28N56W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 22N58W AND BEYOND 18N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N61W 22N63W 20N65W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 31N55W 25N59W 20N69W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 25N53W...AND FROM 24N67W TO 23N82W IN WESTERN CUBA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE 54W/56W TROPICAL WAVE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT