000 AXNT20 KNHC 291746 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N50W TO 9N50W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE LOCATION OF THE AXIS IS ABOUT 825 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 46W-53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WEST AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N24W TO 7N37W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 10N46W. THEN...THE ITCZ RE-FORMS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 8N52W TO THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST OF GUYANA NEAR 7N58W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N E OF 40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE THE GULF OS MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON...CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN BASIN NEAR 24N96W. CONTRASTINGLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS WOBBLING OVER TEXAS NEAR 31N98W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THESE TO FEATURES IS GENERATING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE NW BASIN. SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE WRN HALF OF THE BASIN IS FEEDING LOW LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE TO THE W AND NW REGIONS NOTED ON TPW IMAGERY. ALL THESE PATTERNS ARE ALIGNED TO PRODUCE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED HEAVY SHOWERS/ THUNDERSTORMS N OF 23N W OF 90W. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF TEXAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY A 1018 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE ERN GULF NEAR 27N84W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE WEEKEND. MOSTLY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AS THE HIGH REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... DRY SUBSIDENT AIR ALOFT IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS AFTERNOON...KEEPING MOST OF THE BASIN FREE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. THE ONLY AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OBSERVED OVER THE SW BASIN S OF 13N W OF 77W. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN THE BROAD MONSOONAL TURNING AROUND ITS AXIS ANALYZED FORM NRN COLOMBIA INTO THE ERN PACIFIC S OF PANAMA. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA... SUPPORTING THE ACTIVITY OVER THE SW BASIN. OTHERWISE...15-20 KT TRADE WIND FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS GUSTING TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA WITHIN 150 NM OFF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THIS OVERALL PATTERN ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS WILL LINGER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE REMNANT LOW OF DEBBY CONTINUES TO PRODUCE GALE FORCE WINDS N OF THE AREA. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE WRN N ATLC N OF 26N W OF 62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW CENTER INTO OUR DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N65W CONTINUING SW TO NEAR 28N68W...WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY TO THE NW BAHAMAS NEAR 25N78W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 40 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE COLD FRONT AND 70 NM E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CENTERED NEAR 25N56W CREATING A SMALL AREA OF DIFFLUENCE FLOW ALOFT...SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED NE OF PUERTO RICO FROM 25N58W TO 20N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80-100 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHERWISE...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC. THE SURFACE RIDGE IS ANCHORED BY A 1029 MB HIGH W OF FLORES ISLAND OF THE AZORES. THE BENIGN WEATHER OVER THESE REGIONS IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9 S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA