000 AXNT20 KNHC 291136 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE HAS BEEN RE-POSITIONED IN ORDER TO BE ALONG 15N48W 10N46W 5N47W. RECENT SCATTEROMETER WIND DATA DO NOT SHOW A CLOSED LOW PRESSURE CENTER AT THE SURFACE WHERE ONE WAS ANALYZED SIX HOURS EARLIER. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST SHORTWAVE INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG 44W FROM 11N TO 14N. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 44W AND 50W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REACHES THE COASTAL BORDERS OF MAURITANIA AND SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W...TO 13N20W 6N30W AND 4N34W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N34W TO 3N38W AND 6N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND SOUTH AMERICA. ...DISCUSSION... THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 87W. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW MOVES AROUND A 23N93W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 92W AND 95W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 25N TO THE WEST OF 89W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM 18N TO 19N BETWEEN 97W AND 98W...WITH UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE 23N93W ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF 65W INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 30N72W 27N78W...CROSSING EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA... INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 24N84W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO 29N70W AND 27N74W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY AT 27N74W AND IT CONTINUES ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 25N79W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 25N79W...ACROSS THE FLORIDA KEYS...TO 25N84W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W... TO 25N70W...TO 20N80W AND 16N85W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1018 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 27N84W. A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 23N80W IN CUBA. NO 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND/OR SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET OR HIGHER ARE OBSERVED AND/OR FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM THE PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W...TOWARD AND ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...BELIZE AND GUATEMALA...AND BEYOND THE ISTHMUS AND GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...PASSING THROUGH 18N62W...ALONG A SHEAR AXIS THAT RUNS FROM 18N62W TO 18N70W AND 17N81W. THE SHEAR AXIS BECOMES MORE OF A TROUGH FROM 17N81W TO A 15N84W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR EXTREME EASTERN HONDURAS. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN THE JAMAICA CHANNEL...AND SPREADING FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO CENTRAL GUATEMALA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 6N/7N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA BEYOND 85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE COASTAL WATERS OF CENTRAL AMERICA FROM 9N77W NEAR COLOMBIA TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE FROM 9N77W TO 12N80W TO 14N83W...IN A BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC ENVELOPE. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 15N53W TO 11N60W AND 6N67W IN WEST CENTRAL VENEZUELA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 68W AND 81W. THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE EAST OF 65W... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N40W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES FROM 32N40W TO 32N50W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 32N50W TO A 27N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 21N57W AND BEYOND 18N62W IN THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 25N59W 20N64W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 50W AND 65W...AND FROM 22N TO 30N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 29N57W 25N65W TO THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS ACCOMPANYING THE 47W TROPICAL WAVE...AND THE 1006 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER...THE REMNANTS OF DEBBY...THAT ARE NEAR 33N67W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT