000 AXNT20 KNHC 271802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.7N 79.8W AT 27/1500 UTC OR ABOUT 90 MI E OF ST. AUGUSTINE FLORIDA MOVING E AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO DEBBY IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 70W. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/ WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE TROPICAL CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 14N34W TO 4N38W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. A 1014 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 10N37W. THIS SYSTEM IS EMBEDDED IN AN AREA OF ENHANCED DEEP MOISTURE NOTED ON TPW PRODUCT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100-120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 17N73W TO 11N73W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. BOTH MODEL DATA AND LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SUGGEST A VERY WEAK TO DISSIPATED WAVE. FURTHERMORE...CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL WEATHER CONDITIONS AROUND THE WAVE ARE HINDERING CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N23W TO 10N30W...WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO 12N34W. THEN...THE ITCZ RE-FORMS W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N43W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N E OF 44W. SOME OF THIS CONVECTION IS ALSO RELATED TO THE TROPICAL WAVE MENTIONED ABOVE. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE FAR ERN GULF E OF 84W FROM 25N-28N...ASSOCIATED TO THE SURFACE TROUGHING MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA FROM T.D. DEBBY NOW TRACKING OVER ATLC WATERS. THE BROAD CIRCULATION FROM T.D. DEBBY HAS BROUGHT IN A WEAK COLD FRONT ACROSS THE FAR NE BASIN WITHOUT ANY SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 23N87W IS ADVECTING MID-UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE SE BASIN SUPPORTING AN AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE S OF 22N BETWEEN 91W-95W. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA. THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING DRY NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE BASIN. THIS IS KEEPING MOST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE ONLY AREA OF SHOWERS IS OBSERVED ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE FROM WRN PANAMA TO NRN NICARAGUA...ASSOCIATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING INLAND ACROSS THESE COUNTRIES. THE BENIGN WEATHER ELSEWHERE IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9 S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... T.D. DEBBY IS MOVING ACROSS THE FAR WRN ATLC DISCUSSION AREA GENERATING SEAS UP TO 12 FT WITHIN 60 NM SE SEMICIRCLE. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO DEBBY IS BECOMING EMBEDDED WITHIN A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD. SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 27N W OF 70W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS NOTED ON TOP OF THE CONVECTIVE AREA SUPPORTING THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW...AROUND THE BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION FROM DEBBY W OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 27N70W TO 22N78W. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC WITH ONLY A DIFFUSE SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED IN THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 30N32W TO 22N45W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THE BENIGN WEATHER OVER THE ERN ATLC IS FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST ALOFT EVIDENT ON THE METEOSAT-9 S.A.L. TRACKING PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA