000 AXNT20 KNHC 270559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED JUN 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY IS CENTERED NEAR 29.0N 82.8W AT 27/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 20 NM ESE OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA AND ABOUT 95 NM W OF DAYTONA BEACH FLORIDA MOVING SE AT 05 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. DOPPLER RADAR AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION E OF THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 78W-83W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF NE FLORIDA AND ADJACENT SW NORTH ATLC COASTAL WATERS. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N37W TO 13N34W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A WEAK MONSOONAL 1014 MB LOW IS ALONG THE WAVE AXIS NEAR 08N. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS LOW-LEVEL MONSOON GYRE THAT IS SET UP ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC BETWEEN 33W-39W AND COINCIDES WITH A 700 MB LOW ALOFT CENTERED NEAR 06N38W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-13N BETWEEN 32W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N69W TO 19N69W MOVING W AT 15 KT. EXAMINING TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY...THE WAVE AXIS COINCIDES WITH A MAXIMUM OF PRECIPITABLE WATER BETWEEN 67W-71W BRINGING INCREASED LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE TO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION IS OCCURRING WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 10N22W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 10N22W TO 11N27W TO A 1014 MB MONSOONAL LOW NEAR 08N36W TO 04N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 09N-15N BETWEEN 11W-20W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-12N BETWEEN 18W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... WHILE TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY TRACKS EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING...SURFACE TROUGHING TRAILS WESTWARD WITHIN THE SW QUADRANT OF THE LARGER CIRCULATION ANALYZED FROM 28N83W TO 27N89W. MOST OF THE STRONGER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH DEBBY IS EAST OF CENTER...HOWEVER ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NE GULF WATERS N OF 26N E OF 87W. ALOFT...MUCH OF THE GULF IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER THE SE GULF NEAR 23N87W AND IS FORECAST TO SUPPORT A SURFACE RIDGE THAT WILL BUILD IN OVER THE GULF LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY AND PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. CURRENTLY... RELATIVELY WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 90W WITH CLEAR SKIES PREVAILING FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE ONLY AREA OF ACTIVE CONVECTION NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY IS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTHERN MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 20N-23N BETWEEN 87W-90W...AND FROM 16N-19N BETWEEN 91W-94W. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 23N87W AND PROVIDES NORTHEAST TO EAST WINDS ALOFT TO MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE FAR SE CARIBBEAN. OVERALL THIS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS DRY BUT UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS INCREASES N OF 15N W OF 78W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS...CUBA...AND THE NW CARIBBEAN GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 19N BETWEEN 78W-83W. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY TRANQUIL WITH ONLY A FEW ISOLATED LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM OVER THE DELMARVA REGION TO OVER NORTHERN GEORGIA NEAR 34N84W AND A BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED BY AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERED NEAR 23N87W. THE TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N77W TO THE GEORGIA COAST NEAR 31N81W THEN INLAND TO 31N84W. THIS FRONT IS PROVIDING A BIT OF AN EASTWARD PULL ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WITH MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS OCCURRING OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WATERS N OF 28N BETWEEN 73W-81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ELSEWHERE OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AS MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND CONVERGENCE ARE GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS N OF 23N W OF A LINE FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA NEAR 22N78W. FARTHER EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES OVERALL WITH ONLY A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 32N30W TO 22N46W. POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. OTHERWISE...THE TROPICAL ATLC N OF 14N E OF 60W IS RELATIVELY QUIET. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN