000 AXNT20 KNHC 262359 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM DEBBY MADE LANDFALL AT 26/2100 UTC NEAR STEINHATCHEE FLORIDA. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION AT 27/0000 UTC AND IS CENTERED NEAR 29.5N 83.1W AT 27/0000 UTC OR ABOUT 22 NM N OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA MOVING E-NE AT 5 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST/ ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT4/WTNT24 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED NE OF THE CENTER INLAND OVER NE FLORIDA. OUTER RAINBANDS REMAIN OVER THE E GULF AND CONSISTED OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS E OF 86W. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N34W ALONG 8N37W TO 3N38W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS TO THE S OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THUS...ONLY CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA FROM 3N-12N BETWEEN 30W-40W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N66W TO 12N67W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS LEADING A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE AS ALSO AT THE LEADING EDGE OF THE SAHARAN DUST THAT COVERS THE TROPICAL ATLC. THUS...ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75/90 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 10N20W TO 9N25W WITH THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUING ALONG 10N29W TO 9N32W THEN RESUMES W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N42W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 3N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS MOVING OFF AFRICA FROM 8N-14N E OF 18W TO INLAND OVER GUINEA TO GAMBIA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 18W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY REMAINS A CONCERN FOR THE NE GULF AND MOST OF FLORIDA THIS EVENING. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAK UPPER LOW IS ALONG THE COAST OF S TEXAS CENTERED NEAR 25N95W WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND EXTENDING INTO THE W ATLC AND CARIBBEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH AT 26/2100 UTC EXTENDS FROM S OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY NEAR 27N83W TO 27N90W. AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN AND S MEXICO MOVING INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN 45 NM ALONG THE COAST FROM 89W TO VERACRUZ. TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NE ACROSS N FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WED THEN EMERGE OFF N FLORIDA INTO THE W ATLC WED EVENING REACHING NEAR 30N 79.7W WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE THU AND FRI. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO IS ANCHORED OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO COLOMBIA WHERE AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE E CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45/60 NM OF LINE FROM 20N83W TO ACROSS CUBA NEAR 22N81W. SCATTERED/NUMEROUS SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 78W-82W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH OCCASIONALLY HIGHER WINDS ALONG THE N COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA THROUGH THU. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL REACH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN BY WED AND WILL BE NEAR 75W BY THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... OUTER RAINBANDS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY ARE OVER THE FAR W ATLC W OF 79W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A DEEP LAYERED LOW IS N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND EXTENDING A COLD FRONT INTO GEORGIA JUST N OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY WITH DRY AIR N OF THE FRONT. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN COVERS THE W ATLC WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TO BEYOND 32N60W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT N OF THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS ENHANCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90/120 NM OF LINE FROM OVER CUBA NEAR 22N79W TO 30N75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH IS JUST TO THE E OF THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W TO 22N55W AND PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE W OF THE UPPER TROUGH TO GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 28N-31N BETWEEN 56W-60W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC W OF 70W WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE E ATLC IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N29W ALONG 26N39W TO 21N49W. A 1024 MB HIGH IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 34N47W AND A 1021 MB HIGH IS SE OF THE FRONT NEAR 29N28W. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF SAHARAN DUST COVERING THE TROPICAL ATLC S OF 20N E OF THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE. THE DUST IS THICKER E OF THE E ATLC DISSIPATING FRONT TO AS FAR N AS 40N. SURFACE RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION DEBBY MOVES SLOWLY NE ACROSS N FLORIDA TONIGHT AND WED. TROPICAL STORM DEBBY IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE OFF OF N FLORIDA COAST WED EVENING AND REACH NEAR 30N 79.7W WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY TO THE NE THU THROUGH SAT AND RE-STRENGTHEN TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL THEN RE-BUILD SW THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU AND FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW