000 AXNT20 KNHC 261821 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 26/1800 UTC IS NEAR 29.3N 83.6W...OR ABOUT 35 MILES/55 KM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 995 MB. DEBBY IS MOVING EASTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 45 KNOTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 30N TO 32N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE BAHAMAS AND THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA TO 30N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND T.S. DEBBY ALONG 25N87W 22N90W 19N93W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N82W 23N89W 20N96W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN TWO CELLS IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/ WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 35W/36W FROM 3N TO 11N...BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AROUND THE WAVE APPEARS IN VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 8N TO 9N. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W FROM 11N TO 19N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SIERRA LEONE NEAR 7N12W 6N14W 9N27W 5N41W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N41W TO 3N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 11N IN THE WATER THAT IS BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 6N BETWEEN 40W AND 50W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DEBBY STILL IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N91W AT THE LOUISIANA COAST TO 26N96W TO 25N101W IN CENTRAL MEXICO...TO 18N105W ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N55W TO 26N74W...TO A 21N85W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC... TO 16N96W ALONG THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST OF MEXICO JUST TO THE WEST OF THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE FROM 28N83W AT THE FLORIDA GULF OF MEXICO COAST TO 24N90W AND 19N104W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 26N82W 26N86W 22N91W 20N94W. PLEASE READ THE WARNING INFORMATION FOR T.S. DEBBY IN THE MIATCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY AND/OR THE MIATCMAT4 FORECAST ADVISORY. OTHER WIND FORECAST INFORMATION...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN THE WARNINGS OVER FORECAST WATERS...WITHIN 120 TO 150 NM OF T.S. DEBBY IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLES AND ELSEWHERE TO THE EAST OF 85W...WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 33 KNOTS... AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A WEAK 18N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W TO 13N72W TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N/10N BETWEEN 72W IN COLOMBIA AND BEYOND 83W IN COSTA RICA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 9N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL 23N34W 13N46W 10N58W TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N49W 8N54W 9N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...AWAY FROM THE 18N61W 10N80W TROUGH. THE NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE 31N55W TO 21N85W TO 16N96W UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 21N85W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 65W FROM 11N TO 19N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 65W AND 67W...TO THE SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS ABOUT EIGHT HOURS AGO HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED. ONE CELL OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED FROM 19N TO 20N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W ALONG THE CARIBBEAN SEA COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE FROM 11N TO 15N BETWEEN 65W AND 79W...FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W... AND TO THE SOUTH OF 15N TO THE EAST OF 65W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE RUNS FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 31N55W TO 26N74W...TO A 21N85W NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WEAKENING 37N48W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N50W...TO A 24N53W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A WEAK 18N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS JUST OUTSIDE THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 15N67W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 13N72W TO 10N80W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH A 32N20W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO A 23N34W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER... TO 13N46W TOWARD WHAT CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH...THAT IS ALONG 17N56W 13N57W 10N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 59W AND 62W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 6N49W 8N54W 9N59W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 29N29W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N49W TO 20N57W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N30W TO 31N32W. A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N32W TO 26N40W AND 23N46W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 21N49W 24N42W 27N38W 30N32W BEYOND 32N28W. OTHER SIMILAR CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 210 NM TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FRONT TO THE NORTH OF 27N...AND WITHIN 600 NM TO THE NORTHWEST 27N40W 21N49W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N27W 17N34W TO 10N42W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE NORTH OR SOUTH OF 27N...TO THE WEST OF 70W. EXPECT 20 TO 30 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER OF T.S. DEBBY AT 48 HOURS INTO THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT