000 AXNT20 KNHC 251824 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEBBY AT 25/1800 UTC IS NEAR 29.0N 85.2W...OR ABOUT 50 MILES/80 KM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM PRESSURE IS 995 MB. DEBBY IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD 3 KNOTS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE WITHIN A 60 NM RADIUS OF 30.5N85W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 85W AND 88W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 75W...INCLUDING ACROSS THE BAHAMAS. SIMILAR PRECIPITATION IS EVEN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W. RAINSHOWERS WERE MOVING TOWARD THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND THEY APPEAR TO HAVE WEAKENED DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS AT THE EDGE OF THE LARGE-SCALE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS AROUND T.S. DEBBY ALONG 25N87W 22N91W 21N96W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 TO 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 26N82W 23N89W 20N96W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN TWO CELLS IS IN THE YUCATAN CHANNEL FROM 20N TO 22N BETWEEN 85W AND 87W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT43/WTNT24 KNHC AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 29W/30W...BASED ON LONG-TERM SATELLITE IMAGERY. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ALSO IS IN THE ITCZ. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N58W 8N55W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM 10N TO 17N BETWEEN 58W AND 60W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N20W 9N28W 7N34W 5N41W. THE ITCZ IS NONDESCRIPT AT THIS TIME. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 7N44W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 2N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 36W...AND ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... TROPICAL STORM DEBBY EASILY IS THE MAIN FEATURE AT THIS MOMENT. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM THE LOUISIANA COAST TO THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. ISOLATED RAINSHOWERS WERE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W ABOUT SIX OR SEVEN HOURS AGO...BUT THEY HAVE WEAKENED WITH TIME. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 90W... NOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES T.S. DEBBY. PLEASE READ THE WARNING INFORMATION FOR T.S. DEBBY IN THE MIATCPAT4 PUBLIC ADVISORY. OTHER WIND FORECAST INFORMATION...EXCEPT AS NOTED IN THE WARNINGS...WITHIN 180 NM OF T.S. DEBBY IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE AND TO THE EAST OF 86W WIND SPEEDS RANGING FROM 20 TO 33 KNOTS...AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 65W. THE NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COMES FROM THE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT COVERS THE EXTREME EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO AND THE ATLANTIC OCEAN THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 60W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 65W TO THE SOUTH OF 16N. IT IS LEFT OVER FROM THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH THAT WAS IN THAT AREA FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA COAST ALONG 75W/76W AND COSTA RICA NEAR 85W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 11N IN THE WATERS BETWEEN 76W AND 82W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 14N...IN THE LOW CLOUD WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH. PLEASE READ THE MARINE FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 20N TO THE WEST OF 82W. ALSO READ ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WIND SPEEDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 65W AND 76W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N56W TO 28N58W AND 20N62W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 24N TO 27N BETWEEN 64W AND 73W TO THE EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO TO THE NORTH OF 27N BETWEEN 58W AND 65W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N35W TO 31N37W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 31N37W TO 27N50W AND 29N59W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 150 TO 200 NM TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO THE NORTH OF 25N TO THE EAST OF 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N32 28N36W 25N45W. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS MARKED BY CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION THAT ARE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF 26N50W 28N42W 31N35W. AN UPPER LEVEL INVERTED TROUGH IS ALONG 9N49W 11N50W 14N51W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 48W AND 52W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 16N BETWEEN 46W AND 55W. A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N57W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 30N22W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 24N27W 17N34W TO 10N42W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE AND/OR WILL BE TO THE NORTH OF 24N TO THE WEST OF 65W FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT