000 AXNT20 KNHC 222355 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N85W ALONG A 1005 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR THE NRN COASTAL WATERS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 23N87W CONTINUING SSW ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS VERY BROAD AND COVERS ALMOST THE ENTIRE GULF...THE NW CARIBBEAN AND THE FAR WEST ATLC. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS REVEALED THAT THIS BROAD WIND FIELD RANGES FROM 20 KT WELL OUTSIDE THE ANALYZED FEATURES TO NEAR GALE FORCE CRITERIA OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. DOPPLER RADAR AND INFRA-RED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION WITH THIS SYSTEM LOCATED TO THE E AND SE OF THE SURFACE FEATURES...GENERATING NUMEROUS SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF...THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ALSO OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...FLORIDA...AND THE FAR WEST ATLC FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 77W-90W. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO AS THIS LARGE DISTURBANCE DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 13N32W TO 4N35W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE PRECEDES A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. HOWEVER...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AT THIS TIME...DUE TO SAHARAN DUST COVERING MUCH OF THE TROPICAL NORTH ATLC WATERS. ANY CONVECTION TO THE SE OF THE WAVE AXIS IS LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN AFRICAN COAST NEAR 13N17W ALONG 8N20W TO 5N25W...WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO NEAR 4N34W. THEN IT RESUMES W OF A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 4N37W TO THE COAST OF BRAZIL NEAR EQ49W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 26W-33W...AND FROM 3N-10N E OF 20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A GREAT PORTION OF THE GULF IS DOMINATED BY THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DESCRIBED ABOVE. THIS SYSTEM IS GOING TO IMPACT THE GULF BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND. ASIDE FROM THE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...THE SURFACE TROUGH AND DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS EXPECTED TO BRING STRONGER CYCLONIC WINDS TO THE EASTERN GULF OFFSHORE ZONES IN ADDITION TO PLENTY OF CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN GULF WATERS AND FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS...SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WATERS N OF 18N W OF 78W...ASSOCIATED TO THE BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC WIND FIELD FROM THE SPECIAL FEATURE LOW OVER THE SE GULF OF MEXICO. PERSISTENT CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES IS LIKELY OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. OTHERWISE...FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN BASIN DUE TO SAHARAN DUST ACROSS THIS REGION. IMPACTS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING NEAR 28N69W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE UPPER LOW...THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS SYSTEM IS MAXIMIZED WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE UPPER LOW CENTER FROM 22N-28N BETWEEN 62W-70W...AS WELL AS FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 68W-73W. THIS REGIONS ARE RELATED TO STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALIGNED. OTHERWISE... THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC BASINS IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA ANCHORED BY A 1020 MB HIGH NEAR 22N46W AND A 1025 MB HIGH AROUND 34N23W. THE FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FURTHER ENHANCED BY SAHARAN DUST DEPICTED ON THE METEOSAT-9 SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA