000 AXNT20 KNHC 220542 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT FRI JUN 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM CHRIS IS CENTERED NEAR 43.6N 42.9W AT 22/0300 UTC OR ABOUT 470 NM E-SE OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MOVING N AT 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SYSTEM IS VOID OF ANY DEEP CONVECTION BUT RETAINS A TIGHT CIRCULATION. SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED JUST NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS CURRENTLY DISORGANIZED. THE 1007 MB LOW IS ANALYZED AT 22/0300 UTC JUST N OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 22N88W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NEAR TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA ALONG 27N87W THROUGH THE LOW TO OVER THE YUCATAN NEAR 20N89W TO NW GUATEMALA. THE BROAD CIRCULATION IS BECOMING BETTER DEFINED AND SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING ACROSS THE AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME CONDUCIVE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION TO FORM DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GULF COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS DISTURBANCE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE E GULF W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH TO OVER FLORIDA AND THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND IN THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 17N W OF 77W. HEAVY RAINS AND LOCALIZED FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...WESTERN CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N27W TO 6N31W MOVING W 5-10 KT. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 8N21W TO 8N28W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N34W ALONG 5N38W 7N49W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 23W-26W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-6N BETWEEN 15W-20W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF ANCHORED OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N98W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS E ACROSS THE GULF TO THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS. THE ACTIVITY OVER THE E GULF IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE NE SURFACE FLOW W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH COMBINED WITH THE OPPOSING FLOW ALOFT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE GULF W OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. THE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE N INTO THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH SUN POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK NE ACROSS THE E GULF MON AND TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS A SECOND RIDGE AXIS FROM OVER CUBA ALONG THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NE FLOW ALOFT. THE ACTIVITY IN THE NW CARIBBEAN IS DESCRIBED IN THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N78W THROUGH A WEAK 1009 MB LOW NEAR 10N81W CROSSING PANAMA/COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH. THIS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH E TO SE TRADE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A CUT OFF UPPER LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLC NEAR 28N70W COVERING THE AREA N OF 23N BETWEEN 64W-78W AND SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 22/0300 UTC EXTENDS FROM 31N68W ALONG 30N71W 28N71W TO 26N74W. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER THE GREATER ANTILLES EXTENDS S OF THE CUT OFF UPPER LOW PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF LINE FROM 28N62W 23N68W TO 22N77W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH IN THE E ATLC OFF THE COAST OF PORTUGAL WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N26W ALONG 23N43W TO 26N66W. THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT NW THROUGH FRI NIGHT WHILE WEAKENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ALONG 25N THROUGH SUN. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO FAR NW WATERS MON AND TUE. A TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLC THROUGH TUE INCREASING THE EASTERLY WINDS SOME. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW