000 AXNT20 KNHC 191755 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 19 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC THIS AFTERNOON THAT SUPPORTS A 1004 MB GALE FORCE SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 40N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM OF CENTER IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST QUADRANT. THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT N-NE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A SUBTROPICAL OR TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS UNTIL IT ENCOUNTERS COOLER WATERS AND A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N54W TO 15N52W MOVING W AT 20 KT. ACCORDING TO GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE...THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK 700 MB TROUGHING IN WHICH A SMALL AREA OF 45-50 KT WINDS ALOFT IS FOUND FROM 11N-15N BETWEEN 51W-56W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-11N BETWEEN 50W-62W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N66W TO 19N62W MOVING W-NW AT 20 KT. THE LOW-LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE CONTINUES TO STRETCH IN A NE TO SW ORIENTATION AS THE WAVE FINDS ITSELF ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF LOW TO MIDDLE LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OCCURRING AT THIS TIME. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 15N18W TO 10N21W TO 06N29W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N29W TO 05N39W TO 07N52W. ASIDE FROM CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 16W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO NEAR 24N99W THAT EXTENDS TROUGHING EASTWARD TO ANOTHER WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N88W. TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS...WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS ADVECTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF...AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN GULF E OF 86W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED EAST OF EACH UPPER LEVEL LOW GENERATING WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF W OF 93W...AND SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 26N E OF 86W...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA STRAITS...FLORIDA KEYS...AND THE EXTREME SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA. WHILE THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS ARE IN PLACE FOR CONVECTION TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS...A SURFACE TROUGH CURRENTLY ANALYZED FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 17N88W TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N81W IS FORECAST TO DRIFT NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND LIKELY STALL ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF... POTENTIALLY AS A BROAD SURFACE LOW...PROVIDING AN ENHANCEMENT TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF AND FLORIDA PENINSULA. IN THE MEANTIME...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED IN THE SW NORTH ATLC...IS PROVIDING THE GULF WITH BRISK EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 15 TO 20 KT. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO REGION AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND CUBA INTO PORTIONS OF THE SW NORTH ATLC AND ALONG WITH A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 16N88W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N81W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 17N-23N BETWEEN 75W-84W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING TOWARDS THE NW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION FORECAST OVER PORTIONS OF CUBA THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WITH THE HIGH POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL CONTINUE BE THE PRIMARY IMPACT. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN IS FAIRLY QUIET DUE TO NORTHEASTERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND MODERATE TO FRESH E-SE TRADES. WHILE ONE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 65W IS DAMPENING OUT AS IT TRAVERSES THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN...AN APPROACHING MORE MOISTURE- LADEN TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 53W WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE LESSER ANTILLES BY WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-76W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS THE SPECIAL FEATURES 1004 MB LOW CENTERED NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA AND A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 23N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE AREA FROM 20N-26N BETWEEN 73W-82W AND FROM 21N-29N BETWEEN 61W-73W. THE SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DRIFTING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND BECOME MORE DIFFUSE BY LATE THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES SOUTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST AND INTO THE SW NORTH ATLC BY FRIDAY. OTHERWISE THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 30N45W WITH FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS PERSISTING E OF 55W. OF NOTE...EXAMINING THE GOES-R PROVING GROUND DUST PRODUCT IMAGERY...METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE IMAGERY...AND THE CIMSS SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT...A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST IS ACROSS A LARGE PORTION OF THE TROPICAL ATLC FROM 08N-23N E OF 60W. AN ENHANCED AREA CENTERED NEAR 17N52W IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND NE CARIBBEAN REGION WHICH WILL LIKELY PROVIDE HAZY SKY CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN