000 AXNT20 KNHC 171114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 7N TO 16N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 21N BETWEEN 37W AND 44W. A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING APPEARS IN THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS CHART FOR THE UW-CIMSS/NESDIS IMAGERY. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS HINTED AT IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO. THE 16N80W 13N79W 10N78W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17/0000 UTC WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT INCLUDES THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N80W...THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS... AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 10N20W 5N30W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N30W TO 3N37W. THE NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM SIX HOURS AGO THAT WAS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N14W HAS WEAKENED. THE CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION NOW IS FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 13W AND 17W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO 24N84W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N91W TO 26N92W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 25N TO THE LOUISIANA COAST BETWEEN 84W AND 92W. THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF CARLOTTA HAS WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED IN MEXICO. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N80W...THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE ONLY REMAINING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 94W AND 97W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO. FLORIDA IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 21N77W NEAR CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA...AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF OF MEXICO COAST. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...IN LARGELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ACCOMPANY 28N91W 26N92W TROUGH...AND FROM 23N TO 25N TO THE EAST OF 84W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 32N68W-T0-21N77W TROUGH ALSO HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 68W...AND FROM 16N TO 21N BETWEEN 66W AND 70W INCLUDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA. THE 16N80W 13N79W 10N78W CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE FROM 17/0000 UTC WAS ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT INCLUDES THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 12N80W...THROUGH CENTRAL NICARAGUA...CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND CENTRAL GUATEMALA...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 75W...AND THE 20 KNOT WINDS TO WEST OF 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N68W TO 26N71W TO 21N77W NEAR CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 23N. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 32N47W 23N53W 12N57W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 12N BETWEEN 48W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N68W TO 23N73W NEAR THE BAHAMAS. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W...AND TO THE NORTH OF 26N BETWEEN 55W AND 71W AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 30N9W TO 25N15W 23N30W 20N36W 14N44W 10N50W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 22N39W 10N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N22W...TO A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N30W...TO 31N37W 27N47W 22N61W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY THE 32N60W AND 23N73W TROUGH...AND FROM 15N TO 19N BETWEEN 35W AND 55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT