000 AXNT20 KNHC 170603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 17 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 38W/39W FROM 7N TO 16N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 7N TO 20N BETWEEN 35W AND 40W. A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF CYCLONIC TURNING APPEARS IN THE LOWER LEVEL WINDS CHART FOR THE UW-CIMSS/NESDIS IMAGERY. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO IS HINTED AT IN THE SHORTWAVE INFRARED IMAGERY ALSO. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N80W 13N79W 10N78W. THE WAVE IS BEING ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT INCLUDES THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N81W...INTO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CURVES THROUGH THE COAST OF SENEGAL NEAR 16N16W TO 14N19W 7N24W 6N29W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N29W TO 7N37W 7N42W...AND 5N53W IN NORTHEASTERN COASTAL FRENCH GUIANA. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 6N14W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH LOUISIANA NEAR 30N91W...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N90W TO 24N85W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N94W 28N92W 26N89W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM 27N TO 29N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. THE POST-TROPICAL REMNANT LOW PRESSURE CENTER OF CARLOTTA IS IN MEXICO NEAR 18N100W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS AS FAR TO THE NORTH AS 17N93W IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN WESTERN GUATEMALA AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 17N92W IN THE EASTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF MEXICO AND IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 95W AND 97W. FLORIDA IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF LARGE-SCALE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 29N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE SHOWS UP IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERING THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND FLORIDA...AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LINE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE MISSISSIPPI GULF OF MEXICO COAST. UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS. ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REMAINS FROM 23N TO 25N BETWEEN 80W AND 83W IN THE FLORIDA STRAITS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 24N...IN LARGELY UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW. THIS WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS AT THE PERIPHERY OF THE LARGE SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT ACCOMPANIES THE CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ACCOMPANY 30N92W 26N89W TROUGH...AND FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE EAST OF 85W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURVES FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...INTO THE WEST CENTRAL SECTIONS...TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL WATERS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN 29N70W-T0-BAHAMAS TROUGH ALSO HAS PUSHED ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS HAS DEVELOPED FROM PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA TO 13N81W...WITHIN 60 TO 90 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM PUERTO RICO TO 17N72W 16N78W AND 13N81W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N80W 13N79W 10N78W. THE WAVE IS BEING ABSORBED INTO AN AREA OF BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...THAT INCLUDES THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 10N81W...INTO NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...ACROSS CENTRAL HONDURAS...AND THE SOUTHERN HALF OF GUATEMALA...TO THE EASTERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. THE WAVE IS BECOMING LESS AND LESS DISTINCT WITH TIME. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N TO THE EAST OF 73W...AND THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS FROM 16N TO 19N BETWEEN 84W AND 87W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W TO 27N70W TO 23N75W IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF 23N. A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N49W 24N55W 13N56W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 13N BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N58W TO 31N65W AND 25N75W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF 24N BETWEEN 57W AND 73W...AND FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 26N19W 23N32W 13N44W 10N50W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN 360 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 23N38W 10N50W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N20W...TO A SECOND 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N30W...TO 28N39W 22N48W 23N63W...TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ACCOMPANY THE 31N65W AND 25N75W TROUGH...FROM 09N TO 22N BETWEEN 35W AND 54W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT