000 AXNT20 KNHC 162344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 16 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TRPCL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 13N37W TO 3N38W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE WRN SIDE OF A SURGE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN ALONG 18N72W TO 11N72W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN A BROAD AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY A CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION HAS POPPED UP OVER NE HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-20N BETWEEN 68W-71W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO FROM 16N-17N BETWEEN 70W-73W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 12N16W CONTINUING OVER WATER ALONG 7N22W 4N30W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 4N30W ALONG 4N38W 1N51W. A LARGE CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION IS APPROACHING THE COAST OF GUINEA FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 19W-25W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK SHORTWAVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS OFF A LONGWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND INTO THE NRN GULF FROM FLORIDA TO ERN TEXAS. THIS UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 29N92W TO 25N87W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW GULF ALONG 23N97W TO 19N95W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE COVERS THE ENTIRE SW GULF DUE TO THE CIRCULATION OF T.D. CARLOTTA NOW INLAND OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA S OF 23N ACROSS THE SW GULF AND YUCATAN CHANNEL. STRONGER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SURFACE WINDS ARE MAINLY E-SE RANGING FROM 10-15 KTS WITH MORE VARIABLE DIRECTION AND STRONGER WINDS IN THUNDERSTORMS. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE N CENTRAL GULF IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE VERTICALLY ALIGNED AND DRIFT WWD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN NEAR THIS TROUGH AS WELL AS ACROSS THE SW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... MOIST CONDITIONS COVER MUCH OF THE WRN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. BROAD SURFACE CYCLONIC FLOW IS PRESENT WITH BOTH A TROPICAL WAVE S OF HISPANIOLA AND A SURFACE TROUGH JUST E OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MOIST WLY FLOW ALOFT IS FLOWING BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER NRN CENTRAL AMERICAN AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC. THIS COMBINATION IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA W OF 72W WITH PATCHES OF THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED THROUGHOUT. STRONG SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ACROSS NRN CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...GUATEMALA...EL SALVADOR...BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME ACTIVITY IS ALSO ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS IS ENHANCED BY A PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM N OF NRN COLOMBIA PARALLELING THE COSTA RICA AND PANAMA E COASTS CONTINUING ACROSS NICARAGUA TO EL SALVADOR. BROAD SURFACE TROUGHING WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MAIN AXIS BEGINNING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND DRIFTING TOWARDS THE NW. MOIST CONDITIONS WILL ACCOMPANY. FAIRLY DRY CONDITIONS COVER THE AREA E OF THE TROPICAL WAVE ALONG WITH TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS. THE ERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD EXPECT TO STAY FRY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC ALONG 72W. DRY AIR IS WRAPPING AROUND THE W SIDE OF THE TROUGH PROVIDING FAIR SURFACE CONDITIONS. MOISTURE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT IMPACT THE AREAS E OF THE TROUGH. THE UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE TROUGHS. THE FIRST EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 32N59W ALONG 26N67W 24N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND 175 NM SE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 60W-70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE REMAINDER OF THE AXIS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 71W-79W. THE SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N65W TO 27N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS E OF 70W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE THE AXIS W OF 70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG 44W SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 33N23W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC. A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CANARY ISLANDS TO NEAR 16N39W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE FAR ERN ATLC CENTERED OVER NW AFRICA NEAR 20N11W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON