000 AXNT20 KNHC 151740 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM 13N29W TO 5N32W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED AT THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 25W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS EXTENDING FROM 18N60W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS S OF 18N BETWEEN 60W-66W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 8N21W TO 8N29W. THE ITCZ AXIS BEGINS NEAR 6N37W AND CONTINUES WEST ALONG 5N45W TO 4N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED WEAK CONVECTION ARE FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 35W-50W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-10N E OF 23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EMBEDDED IN THE WSW FLOW ALOFT THAT COVERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH MOVING OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD IS SUPPORTING A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE GULF CLOSE TO THE COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA NEAR 29N86W. DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 26N-30N BETWEEN 83W-88W. MARINE OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE LOW CENTER INDICATED GUSTY ESE WINDS UP TO 25 KT. SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY TRACK SSE OVER TH NEXT 6-12 HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING WESTWARD AND DISSIPATING DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. ANOTHER AREA OF WEATHER TO WATCH FOR IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE OUTER CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO TROPICAL STORM CARLOTTA IS ALREADY AFFECTING THIS REGION WITH SIMILAR CONVECTION S OF 21N. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FURTHER DETERIORATE AND SPREAD NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD CYCLONIC TURNING REMAINS OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN... ASSOCIATED TO THE REMNANT CIRCULATION OF A DISSIPATED TROPICAL WAVE...GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-20N W OF 80W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE FAR SW CARIBBEAN ASSOCIATED A 1009 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 10N80W EMBEDDED IN THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO OVER PORTIONS OF WESTERN PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL IS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES WITH AXIS ANALYZED FROM 18N60W TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 10N64W. THIS FEATURE IS BRINGING SIMILAR ACTIVITY TO THE ISLANDS S OF GUADELOUPE E OF 66W. THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO LESSEN OVER THE ISLANDS AS THE WAVE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS WITH A FEW ISOLATED WEAK SHOWERS EMBEDDED IN THE MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE/TROUGH MOVES OFF THE ERN CONUS SEABOARD SUPPORTING A 1011 LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED NEAR 30N68W. THIS LOW IS TRACKING EAST AT ABOUT 20 KT. A WEAK COLD FRONT EXTENDS SSW FROM THE LOW CENTER TO 26N73W. DESPITE THE LOCATION OF THE WEAK COLD FRONT AND SURFACE LOW... SCATTERED MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 62N-34N BETWEEN 60W-69W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS WIDELY SCATTERED W OF THE LOW N OF 24N TO THE FLORIDA COAST ASSOCIATED TO THE SUPPORTIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO LOOSE MOMENTUM AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...BEFORE LIFTING NE ACROSS THE OPEN WATERS OF THE N-CENTRAL ATLC AFTER THE 24 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N-CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING INTO OUR REGION NEAR 32N42W ALONG 26N47W TO 22N54W. SCATTERED WEAK SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA