000 AXNT20 KNHC 151050 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI JUN 15 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE SW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N28W TO 5N31W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 28W-35W. TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N59W TO 6N60W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM OF LINE FROM 15N57W TO 14N61W INCLUDING ST. LUCIA. TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA HAS BEEN ABSORBED BY A SURFACE TROUGH TO THE SW. SEE GULF OF MEXICO SECTION BELOW. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N16W ALONG 11N18W TO 8N24W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N34W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 200 NM N OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN52W-57W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR TALLAHASSEE TO NEAR 26N87W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 15/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N84W THROUGH A NEWLY FORMED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 29N86W TO 28N90W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF LINE FROM APALACHEE BAY NEAR 30N83W ALONG 28N89W TO 28N94W. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS OVER THE S GULF S OF 25N PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 23N92W TO OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N94W IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS SURFACE TROUGH ABSORBED THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT WAS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1016 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 27N90W. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE N GULF WILL GRADUALLY SINK SE. THE ASSOCIATED LOW WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY. THE TROUGH WILL THEN CLEAR THE GULF BY EARLY SAT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN REBUILD S ACROSS THE E GULF BEHIND THE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE W CARIBBEAN W OF 67W ANCHORED OVER EL SALVADOR AND EXTENDS INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SECOND UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN ANCHORED IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC. THE WESTERN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENHANCE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN. THE EASTERN UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE TO ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS S OF LINE FROM ANTIGUA IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N70W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N75W ALONG 11N80W INTO THE E TROPICAL OVER COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45/60 NM OF A LINE FROM 10N75W TO 12N82W. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC IS MAINTAINING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN THROUGH LATE SAT FOLLOWED BY FRESH TRADE WINDS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN SUN THROUGH TUE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAK UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W ATLC BETWEEN 67W-76W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 15/0900 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N68W TO 27N74W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 29N. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 55W N OF 22N PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120/150 NM OF A LINE FROM 31N63W 26N71W TO OVER THE N BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 25N79W. AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE N/CENTRAL ATLC N OF 30N SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS THROUGH 32N43W ALONG 27N48W TO 24N54W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 175 NM E OF THE TROUGH N OF 29N AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE REMAINDER OF THE TROUGH. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 33N24W LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. WEAK LOW WILL FORM ALONG A COLD FRONT LATE TODAY EXTENDING FROM 31N70W TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN TO A TROUGH BY LATE TODAY REACHING FROM A 1011 MB LOW 31N68W TO 26N76W. THE STATIONARY LOW WILL WEAKEN FURTHER BY LATE SAT BEFORE DISSIPATING SUN. THE LINGERING TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM 31N68W TO THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS LATE SUN INTO MON AND FROM 31N67W THROUGH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY LATE TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW