000 AXNT20 KNHC 142351 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE CAPE VERDE ISLAND NEAR 15N24W TO 4N27W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE IS LOCATED IN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 25W-31W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N55W TO SURINAME NEAR 5N56W MOVING WNW AT 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. WIDELY SCATTERED SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 49W-54W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO HONDURAS NEAR 15N87W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 17N-21N BETWEEN 87W-91W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 15N-17N BETWEEN 83W-96W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N15W AND CONTINUES TO 8N17W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 8N17W TO 8N26W TO 6N34W TO 9N56W TO 9N60W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE INLAND OVER W AFRICA FROM 9N-14N BETWEEN 12W-16W. BESIDES THE CONVECTION MENTIONED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVES...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 31W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AS OF 2100 UTC... A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W. 10 KT ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE OVER THE GULF. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION INLAND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF STATES FROM E TEXAS TO N FLORIDA. IN CONTRAST...THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. FURTHER S...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND S MEXICO E OF 95W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE TROUGH IS ENHANCING PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. EXPECT... MORE SHOWERS AND RAIN OVER THE NE GULF AND N FLORIDA OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT MORE PRECIPITATION OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...AND SOUTH MEXICO. CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. A 1008 MB LOW IS INLAND OVER N COLOMBIA NEAR 6N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER COLOMBIA FROM 6N-11N BETWEEN 73W-77W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND JAMAICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 70W. 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS. EXPECT CONTINUED PRECIPITATION OVER THE S AND W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 32N72W TO 28N78W MOVING E. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF COCOA BEACH FLORIDA TO 79W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS ALSO E OF THE FRONT FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 67W-71W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 32N44W TO 25N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF THE TROUGH. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 33N28W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 40W-55W SUPPORTING THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROUGH. EXPECT... ADDITIONAL CONVECTION E OF THE N BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA