000 AXNT20 KNHC 141120 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 14 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE S OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS EXTENDS FROM 15N22W TO 6N26W MOVING W 10-15 KT. WAVE REMAINS AT THE LEADING EDGE A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED SHOWERS COVERS THE AREA FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 21W-29W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N50W TO 6N54W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75/90 NM OF LINE FROM 8N49W 9N54W TO 8N59W. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 21N84W TO 15N84W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N W OF 81W TO INLAND OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 14N17W TO 8N22W. THE ITCZ STARTS W OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 7N27W AND CONTINUES TO 7N47W THEN RESUMES W OF THE SECOND WAVE NEAR 7N55W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N59W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 31W-36W. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 41W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INTO THE W GULF EXTENDING FROM W LOUISIANA TO 26N95W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS W OF 96W WITH THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN COVERING THE SE GULF S OF 25N E OF 93W HAS INDUCED AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE WHICH IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 20N BETWEEN 92W-97W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT REMAINS INLAND OVER THE N GULF COAST STATES WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 14/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM OVER TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA INTO THE GULF S OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA TO 29N89W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 28N E OF 90W TO OVER FLORIDA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER AGAIN THIS MORNING. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1015 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 26N90W. A WEAK COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE NE GULF TODAY AND DISSIPATE FROM THE FLORIDA KEYS TO THE CENTRAL GULF FRI NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD OVER GEORGIA LATE FRI INTO SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS ALONG 14N80W THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W THROUGH A 1010 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N82W INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS S NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W AND IS GENERATING CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 16N E OF 75W TO INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THE SAME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS SE OF LINE FROM THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TO THE ABC ISLANDS. WEAK W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE FAR W ATLC NEAR 32N76W TO S FLORIDA NEAR MIAMI SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 14/0900 UTC ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N75W TO THE FLORIDA COAST JUST S OF JACKSONVILLE WHERE IT CONTINUES TO OVER GEORGIA. A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N74W TO 29N78W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30 NM E OF THE TROUGH TO WITHIN 30 NM W OF THE COLD FRONT. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMAS HAS DISSIPATED. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 67W FROM 22N TO BEYOND 32N PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 21N-30N BETWEEN 65W-76W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 47W-63W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH 32N47W ALONG 26N53W TO 25N61W AND A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N45W ALONG 27N48W TO 23N53W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AND WITHIN 150 NM E OF THE COLD FRONT W OF 55W. BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N77W TO HOBE SOUND FRI MORNING BEFORE ACCELERATING E AND DISSIPATING FROM 1011 MB LOW NEAR 30N65W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW