000 AXNT20 KNHC 131111 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED JUN 13 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 14N44W TO 6N45W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE WAVE BETWEEN 9N-11N. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 19N79W TO 12N80W MOVING W NEAR 15 KT. WAVE SIGNATURE IS PARTIALLY OBSCURED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY BY HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM E OF WAVE AXIS N OF 17N. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 18N16W ALONG 12N22W TO 6N31W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 5N37W S OF THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 6N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 5N54W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM 5N-11N BETWEEN 14W-21W AND FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 34W-42W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE COVERS MEXICO ANCHORED IN THE E PACIFIC REGION EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS S TEXAS TO THE W FLORIDA PANHANDLE WHILE A SECOND UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO NEAR 25N85W. THE NARROW UPPER TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM NEAR TAMPA FLORIDA ALONG 25N89W 21N93W THROUGH THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N95W SUPPORTING A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 21N92W TO INLAND OVER S MEXICO NEAR 18N93W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N BETWEEN 91W-95W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NE GULF EXTENDING AT 13/0900 UTC FROM SE GEORGIA INTO THE GULF NEAR 30N84W TO 29N88W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF THE FLORIDA COAST BETWEEN TAMPA AND APALACHICOLA BAY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE GULF WITH A 1017 MB HIGH ANCHORED NEAR 26N87W. SURFACE RIDGE WILL LINGER IN THE CENTRAL GULF THROUGH THU. THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE NE GULF WILL BE PUSHED E OVER FLORIDA BY A WEAK COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE NE GULF THU AND BECOME STATIONARY FROM TAMPA BAY TO 28N87W LATE THU AND FRI BEFORE MOVING E OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TO NICARAGUA THEN N THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO GIVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE DENSE CLOUD COVER WITH EMBEDDED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 14N E OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM COLOMBIA ACROSS COSTA RICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-14N W OF 82W TO INLAND OVER NICARAGUA. CLUSTERS OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 15N W OF 81W. W ATLC WEAK SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS NW THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN UNTIL DISSIPATING OVER THE YUCATAN FRI. ANOTHER TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE INTO THE E CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMA ISLANDS NEAR 23N75W TO BEYOND 32N76W COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 65W. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE W ATLC N OF FROM 65W-75W WITH A 1017 MB HIGH NEAR 32N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS SW OF THE SURFACE RIDGE AT 13/0900 UTC EXTENDING FROM 26N74W THROUGH THE BAHAMA ISLANDS TO THE N COAST OF CUBA NEAR 22N78W GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 72W-78W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 45W-65W SUPPORTING A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W EXTENDING ALONG 26N54W TO 25N64W WITH A PREFRONTAL SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 30N47W ALONG 26N50W TO 23N56W AND A COLD FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING THROUGH 32N51W TO 27N57W THEN DISSIPATING TO 27N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 24N-27N BETWEEN 49W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE BAHAMA ISLANDS WILL DISSIPATE BY THU. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE W ATLC TONIGHT WITH A PRE FRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 31N79W TO 29N81W. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N73W TO 28N80W THU NIGHT BEFORE ACCELERATING E AND DISSIPATING FROM 1011 MB LOW NEAR 31N70W TO THE N BAHAMAS FRI NIGHT. THE REMAINING TROUGH WILL LINGER FROM NEAR BERMUDA TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS OVER THE WEEKEND. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW