000 AXNT20 KNHC 121037 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT TUE JUN 12 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 15N34W TO 7N35W MOVING W NEAR 15-20 KT. WAVE WAS RELOCATED BASED ON MODEL DATA AND A BROAD SURGE OF MOISTURE AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CARIBBEAN WAS RELOCATED BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A BROAD SURGE OF MOISTURE AS OBSERVED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE NORTH PORTION OF THIS WAVE HAS BROKEN AWAY AND IS NOW A SURFACE TROUGH NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 13N17W ALONG 8N21W TO 5N31W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 6N43W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 7N59W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG THE COAST OF LIBERIA AND SIERRA LEONE S OF 10N W OF 10W AND WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 9N15W TO 6N21W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 6N21W TO 4N27W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30/45 NM OF LINE FROM 6N49W TO 5N52W AND WITHIN 60 NM OF LINE FROM 8N50W TO OVER TRINIDAD NEAR 10N61W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH THE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR PENSACOLA SW TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 18N94W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR REMAIN OVER THE W GULF. AN UPPER RIDGE IS IN THE W ATLC OFF THE FLORIDA TO CAROLINAS COASTS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS MOVED OVER THE N GULF WITH A NARROW BAND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG A LINE FROM PANAMA CITY FLORIDA 29N89W TO SE LOUISIANA NEAR CAILOU BAY. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLC OVER THE GULF ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR CEDAR KEY FLORIDA CONTINUING TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS BORDER. THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WED AND THU BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI AS A COLD FRONT MOVES NE OF THE AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS ACROSS THE N PORTION OF SOUTH AMERICA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GIVING THE CARIBBEAN NEARLY ZONAL WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE REMAINS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 13N-17N. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA N OF PANAMA INTO THE E PACIFIC REGION OVER COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS S OF LINE FROM NICARAGUA NEAR 12N84W ALONG 12N79W TO COLOMBIA NEAR 11N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM CUBA NEAR 20N76W TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS NEAR 16N88W LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE TO FRESH EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN THROUGH THU AND PRIMARILY OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN LATE FRI AND SAT. THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL PASS THROUGH THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TODAY AND TONIGHT INTO THE W CARIBBEAN WED AND THU BEFORE MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN ON FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE IS OFF THE FLORIDA TO THE CAROLINAS COASTS COVERING THE FAR W ATLC W OF 75W. A SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W ATLC EXTENDS W INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS S OF THE SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 26N73W THROUGH THE S BAHAMA ISLAND CHAIN TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE/E TIP OF CUBA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 120 NM OF LINE FROM 23N64W 23N71W TO 22N78W. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC BETWEEN 50W-75W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N50W EXTENDING ALONG 26N57W TO 24N68W AND A RE-ENFORCING COLD FRONT TO THE W EXTENDING THROUGH 32N58W ALONG 29N64W TO 32N71W. SCATTERED TO HEAVY SHOWERS WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE STATIONARY FRONT BETWEEN 54W-59W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 150 NM E AND 120 NM W OF THE STATIONARY FRONT E OF 54W. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT E OF 60W. A SURFACE TROUGH...PREVIOUSLY A PORTION OF A THE CARIBBEAN TROPICAL WAVE...EXTENDS FROM 25N52W TO N OF THE LEEWARD/VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N64W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH JUST S OF THE AZORES LEAVING THE E ATLC WITH FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE FAR W SURFACE TROUGH WILL DRIFT W THROUGH THE BAHAMAS THROUGH WED AND DISSIPATE ON THU. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC TODAY. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO FAR W ATLC THU. THIS FRONT WILL DISSIPATE AS IT EXTENDS FROM 32N72W TO THE N BAHAMAS FRI MORNING AND FROM 1011 MB SURFACE LOW NEAR 30N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS SAT MORNING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW