000 AXNT20 KNHC 120002 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT MON JUN 11 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N28W TO 3N32W MOVING W NEAR 5-10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD LOW AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. CLUSTERS OF WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE E OF THE WAVE AXIS FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 26W-29W. RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE ALSO WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 22N59W TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 15N63W MOVING WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A NARROW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE REMAINS INACTIVE WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION ALONG THE AXIS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 13N16W AND CONTINUES TO 8N20W TO 7N28W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 6N33W TO 5N45W TO N BRAZIL AT 4N52W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 15W-23W... AND FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 43W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND RAIN ARE OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE DUE TO A SURFACE TROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OVER NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA N OF 28N. FURTHER S...ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM 21N-23N BETWEEN 84W-87W. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS FAIR WEATHER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW IS PRODUCING 10-15 KT SE TO S FLOW OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE W GULF WITH SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE SE GULF. EXPECT...SHOWERS AND RAIN TO PERSIST OVER N FLORIDA FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS DUE TO THE SURFACE TROUGH. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER S MEXICO AND GUATEMALA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 91W-95W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS ALSO OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...PANAMA AND COSTA RICA FROM 7N-11N BETWEEN 78W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER E CUBA...AND HISPANIOLA FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN 71W-78W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 33N75W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 32N49W TO 28N53W TO 23N70W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-29N BETWEEN 48W-60W. RAIN AN SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A 1030 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 36N27W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 45W-70W SUPPORTING THE STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA