000 AXNT20 KNHC 100550 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SUN JUN 10 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 05N-15N ALONG 18W MOVING W AT 10 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IS EVIDENT ON TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY E OF 20W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OCCURRING FROM 06N-09N BETWEEN 12W-20W. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N54W TO 15N52W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. LOCATED ON THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN EASTERN AND CENTRAL ATLC SURFACE RIDGE...LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW IS NOTED IN THE VICINITY OF THE WAVE AXIS. WHILE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES AN OVERALL WESTWARD MOVEMENT...MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE LAGS TO THE EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS OVERHEAD FROM 20N50W TO 15N61W AND CONTINUES TO ADVECT THIS MOISTURE TO THE EAST OF 50W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EAST OF THE AXIS FROM 02N-16N BETWEEN 40W-53W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N20W TO 04N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-08N BETWEEN 25W-33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 02N-08N BETWEEN 33W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 29N96W TO A BASE NEAR 22N87W. MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS N OF 26N E OF 93W AS A STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI NEAR 31N89W. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NE AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF WATERS N OF 27N W OF 93W... INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SE CONUS. OTHERWISE...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE LIFTING SLOWLY TO THE NORTH THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 20 KT IS FORECAST FOR SUNDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC AND IS EXPECTED TO BUILD GRADUALLY WESTWARD SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH LIGHTER ANTICYCLONIC WINDS AND FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ARE TRANQUIL FOR THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD AS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION DOMINATES CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N76W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR AND SUBSIDENCE PREVAILS RESULTING IN THE OVERALL CLEAR SKIES. THE MONSOON TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS FROM COSTA RICA TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND IS GENERATING THE ONLY DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING AT THIS TIME FROM 10N-12N BETWEEN 80W-85W. FARTHER TO THE WEST OVER INTERIOR CENTRAL AMERICA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN HONDURAS...EL SALVADOR...AND SOUTHERN GUATEMALA THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE... STRONG TRADES IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT ARE OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA S OF 18N BETWEEN 66W-88W REACHING 30 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND NW VENEZUELA. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN CUBA NEAR 22N76W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS NORTH- NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE SE CONUS TO BEYOND 35N83W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO...SE CONUS... AND PORTIONS OF THE FAR WESTERN SW NORTH ATLC REGION ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGING THAT IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE VICINITY OF A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 27N77W TO THE FLORIDA COAST NEAR JACKSONVILLE. THIS ACTIVITY REMAINS N OF 27N W OF 77W. THE REMAINDER OF THE SW NORTH ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1019 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 32N73W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDS ALONG 57W NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TO A BASE NEAR 25N65W AND SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 32N56W S-SW TO 26N60W TO 23N70W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 120 NM WEST AND 150 NM EAST OF THE FRONT N OF 22N. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BECOME STATIONARY BY LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH LINGERING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND POSSIBLE SHOWERS N OF 25N BETWEEN 50W-70W. THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N28W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN