000
AXNT20 KNHC 092355
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 
14N MOVING W AT 10 KT. A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE EVIDENT IN 
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
IS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE WAVE FROM 5N-8N BETWEEN 
15W-19W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE 
WAVE FROM 13N-16N BETWEEN 16W-20W.  

TROPICAL WAVE IS APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES ALONG 51W/52W S 
OF 15N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS LOW-AMPLITUDE... 
BUT STILL ALIGNS WELL WITH A WEAK SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
EVIDENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. RAIN AND SHOWERS 
ARE WITHIN 90 NM OF THE WAVE AXIS. 

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF 
SENEGAL AT 12N16W TO 8N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N21W ALONG 
5N34W 10N48W 9N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 25W-40W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 40W-46W. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...
HEAVY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO 
AND NE GULF STATES...NAMELY COASTAL FLORIDA...ALABAMA... 
MISSISSIPPI...AND LOUISIANA....N OF 27N E OF 92W. THERE ARE 
REPORTS OF LOCALIZED FLOODING ACROSS SOME THESE STATES. THIS 
ACTIVE WEATHER IS CAUSED BY A STATIONARY FRONT THAT EXTENDS 
ALONG 30N FROM NEW ORLEANS TO JACKSONVILLE. FURTHER W...A 
SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE NW GULF FROM S LOUISIANA NEAR 30N92W 
TO S TEXAS NEAR 26N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS. 10 KT SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE 
GULF DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE RETURN FLOW. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION OVER 
THE NE GULF. ELSEWHERE...STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE SW GULF 
PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT...CONVECTION TO PERSIST FOR 
ANOTHER 24 HOURS OVER THE NE GULF.  

CARIBBEAN SEA...
15-25 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONGEST WINDS 
OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN N OF COLOMBIA. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER E 
HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...AND N COSTA RICA. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER PANAMA AND THE SW CARIBBEAN S OF S 
OF 13N W OF 77W. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF 
THE CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN INVERTED UPPER TROUGH 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN IS CREATING AN UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT 
CONTRIBUTING TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND 
SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A 1020 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA NEAR 
32N76W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 
N OF THE BAHAMAS NEAR 27N77W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 26N-30N W OF 78W. A COLD FRONT IS FURTHER E 
FROM 32N56W TO 27N62W TO 23N73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
120 NM S OF THE FRONT. A 1027 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC 
NEAR 33N28W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN 
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 55W-70W SUPPORTING THE 
COLD FRONT. EXPECT...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION OVER THE BAHAMAS OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO EXPECT THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE E WITH 
SHOWERS.     

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA