000 AXNT20 KNHC 091145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 06N48W TO 13N44W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 41W-49W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 44W-48W AND IS LIKELY MORE ASSOCIATED WITH THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 09N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 09N19W TO 05N34W TO 08N49W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 04N25W TO 07N32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 03N-09N BETWEEN 24W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING AND ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE EASTERN GULF WATERS...IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FROM 21N-24N BETWEEN 89W-91W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO EAST OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA NEAR 30N88W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF FROM 25N96W TO 29N92W AND IS CLOSELY LOCATED BENEATH THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL LOW GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 93W-96W THIS MORNING. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REFLECTS TO THE SURFACE AS A SURFACE TROUGH OR PERHAPS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NE GULF MONDAY AND RE-ESTABLISH INFLUENCE OVER THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N76W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM 20N76W TO 10N82W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N77W TO NEAR 09N81W. THIS TROUGHING IS LARGELY GENERATING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 75W-83W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE NORTH ALONG 19N AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N62W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR E OF 70W WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. OF SIGNIFICANCE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 64W-82W REACHING 30 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE ENHANCED TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 36N65W TO 29N70W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A WEAK 1014 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 31N64W AND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM THE LOW TO 28N74W THAT CONTINUES WESTWARD AS A STATIONARY FRONT TO NEAR 29N81W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT EAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN 240 NM EAST OF THE COLD FRONT N OF 25N. ANOTHER AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS ALSO OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 22N-30N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE WEAK SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NEAR 31N64W IN THE VICINITY OF BERMUDA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST...THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N27W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN