000 AXNT20 KNHC 090545 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT SAT JUN 09 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 07N44W TO 13N43W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS...THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN AREA OF LOW-AMPLITUDE DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY BETWEEN 40W-48W. CONVECTION REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS...HOWEVER SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OCCURRING FROM 08N-12N BETWEEN 42W-46W AND IS LIKELY MORE ASSOCIATED TO THE ITCZ. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 11N16W TO 08N19W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 08N19W TO 06N26W TO 08N44W TO 07N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-07N BETWEEN 23W-32W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-12N BETWEEN 35W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 95W. ABUNDANT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROUGHING AND ALONG WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAXIMIZED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF WATERS...IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM 23N-28N BETWEEN 78W-85W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING FARTHER NORTH FOCUSED ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA WESTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST TO NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA THEN TO GALVESTON BAY. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY AND NORTH OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE NE GULF N OF 24N E OF 88W AND OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL GULF S OF 27N BETWEEN 88W-93W. THIS OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING REFLECT TO THE SURFACE AS A SURFACE TROUGH OR PERHAPS A WEAK LOW OVER THE NW GULF THROUGH LATE SATURDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SOUTHERLY IN THE RANGE OF 5 TO 15 KT AND GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A LOW PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS WELL TO THE NORTH OVER THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. SURFACE RIDGING IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE NE GULF MONDAY AND RE-ESTABLISH INFLUENCE OVER THE BASIN THROUGH THE EARLY HALF OF NEXT WEEK. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE EAST PACIFIC REGION OVER GUATEMALA AND BELIZE TO OVER CUBA NEAR 23N76W. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN W OF A LINE FROM 20N76W TO 10N82W. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING...AN INVERTED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM OVER THE SW PORTION OF HISPANIOLA TO AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 12N80W. THIS TROUGHING IS LARGELY GENERATING AN AREA OF ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 09N-17N BETWEEN 72W-81W. FARTHER EAST...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MOSTLY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN TROUGHING TO THE NORTH ALONG 20N AND AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 11N62W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES MOSTLY DRY AIR E OF 70W WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING TRANQUIL CONDITIONS AND CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. OF SIGNIFICANCE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION...TRADEWIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 20-25 KT IS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA BETWEEN 64W-82W REACHING 30 KT IN THE VICINITY OF THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE TRADES ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE SW NORTH ATLC WITH TROUGH AXIS ALONG 36N67W TO 30N74W. THIS TROUGHING SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT ANALYZED FROM 32N65W NEAR BERMUDA WEST- SOUTHWEST TO 30N73W THEN TO CAPE CANAVERAL NEAR 28N81W AND INTO THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ABUNDANT IN A WIDE CORRIDOR SURROUNDING THE FRONT...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 32N61W TO 28N70W TO 28N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA STRAITS FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 78W-83W. THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN MOVING NORTHEASTWARD BY MID-DAY SATURDAY AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS NEAR 30N60W BY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY AND MOVE NORTHEAST OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE AREA AND REMAIN IN CONTROL THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FARTHER EAST...THE REST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1026 MB HIGH CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AZORES NEAR 33N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN