000
AXNT20 KNHC 081112
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT FRI JUN 08 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS
OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST
FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 37W/38W FROM 6N
TO 12N. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF
THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF SIERRA 
LEONE NEAR 7N12W...TO 7N27W AND 7N36W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 
7N36W TO 5N51W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 
FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 42W AND 58W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN FROM 4N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 40W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 99W...PASSING THROUGH TEXAS TO 
SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES FROM THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA TO 25N81W NEAR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND BEYOND 28N76W
IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW
COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 30N BETWEEN 60W AND 
90W. THE CYCLONIC FLOW SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS 
ALONG 30N/31N BETWEEN 60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND A 1011 MB 
LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST.
A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N94W TO THE NORTHEASTERN MEXICO
GULF COASTAL PLAINS NEAR 25N97W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE GULF WATERS PRETTY
MUCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 20N...IN THE
WATERS AND IN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.
A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 25N66W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
TO 25N77W IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR THE 20 KNOT WIND CONDITIONS
TO THE NORTH OF 28N BETWEEN 87W AND 90W IN ABOUT 42 HOURS.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH WESTERN NICARAGUA BEYOND THE 
YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 
20N...IN THE WATERS AND IN MEXICO AND GUATEMALA...BETWEEN 90W 
AND 100W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RUNS FROM 20N67W TO 10N77W...
TO 8N77W IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. THE MONSOON TROUGH 
PASSES THROUGH 9N73W IN COLOMBIA TO 7N77W...INTO NORTHWESTERN
COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 
SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 8 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 20N IN A FEW 
DIFFERENT AREAS. 

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC 
OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF 
COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. THE CYCLONIC WIND FLOW 
SUPPORTS THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 30N/31N TO THE WEST 
OF 65W NEAR BERMUDA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST 
OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N45W TO 27N60W...TO 21N75W AT 
THE COAST OF CUBA. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES NEAR BERMUDA...AND 
THEN IT CONTINUES ALONG 30N/31N WESTWARD TO THE GULF COASTAL 
PLAINS AND WATERS OF THE U.S.A. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 
33N26W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 29N42W... 
TO 25N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...AND BEYOND 25N80W BEYOND THE 
NORTHERN BAHAMAS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
NEAR 24N43W. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT USED TO CONNECT THIS 
FEATURE TO A TROUGH IN SOUTH AMERICA HAS WEAKENED...FORMING JUST 
THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED TO A 
WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 
30N/31N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 21N BETWEEN 36W AND 55W FOR 
TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
MT