000 AXNT20 KNHC 072356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT THU JUN 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... LOW-AMPLITUDE TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N35W TO 3N36W MOVING W AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES WITHIN AN EQUALLY LOW-AMPLITUDE SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA AT 11N15W CONTINUING TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 7N19W ALONG 7N34W 6N46W 5N56W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 12W-15W...FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 17W-22W...AND FROM 6N-7N BETWEEN 42W-49W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS ALSO INLAND ACROSS SOUTH AMERICA FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 52W-59W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... ABUNDANT MOISTURE REMAINS OVER MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN GULF OF MEXICO TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH MOIST SWLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER TEXAS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE NW CARIBBEAN TO THE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER TEXAS AS WELL AS A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE CONUS AND NW ATLC SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT LINES THE BORDER OF THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM THE W ATLC ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND THE PANHANDLE AND CONTINUES TO TEXAS. TWO SURFACE TROUGH ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE FIRST IS IN THE NW GULF FROM 29N93W TO 26N96W. THE SECOND IS IN THE NE GULF FROM 30N86W TO 25N86W. THE COMBINATION OF ALL THESE FEATURES IS PRODUCING AREAS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE BASIN. NUMEROUS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS AND LOUISIANA COASTS BETWEEN 88W-98W. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE NE GULF N OF 27N E OF 86W...INCLUDING MUCH OF N FLORIDA. PATCHES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 91W-94W AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LACKS MUCH UPPER LEVEL PUSH...WHICH WILL ALLOW IT TO REMAIN MOSTLY STATIONARY AND GRADUALLY DRIFT S AND E OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS ALSO MEANS THAT MOIST CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF THE GULF COAST AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA TO THE SE BAHAMAS. THE UPPER RIDGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT...WHICH IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WRN CARIBBEAN WITH A FEW POSSIBLE SHOWERS NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SOME STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA INCLUDING GUATEMALA...HONDURAS...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY IS INFLUENCED BY THE MONSOON TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC ACROSS COSTA RICA AND PANAMA TO NRN COLOMBIA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NRN COLOMBIA TO THE MONA PASSAGE WHICH IS PROVIDING MOIST DIFFLUENT FLOW OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS THAT THE UPPER TROUGH IS ONLY SUPPORTING SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUD COVER AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM 11N-14N BETWEEN 67W-73W. STRONGER ACTIVITY IS ACROSS INLAND VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOIST ZONAL WLY FLOW ALOFT EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA AND OVER THE WRN ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TO THE N OF THE AREA ACROSS THE NE CONUS AND NW ATLC SUPPORTS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO JUST N OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. THE COMBINATION OF MOISTURE ALOFT ALONG WITH CONVERGENCE NEAR THE FRONT IS HELPING SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 25N W OF 68W INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE NW BAHAMAS. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIP S IN TO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND ERN ATLC CENTERED NEAR 26N28W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW IS IMMEDIATELY TO THE W NEAR 25N40W...BUT IT IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE AROUND A 1025 MB HIGH NEAR 29N43W PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE FAR ERN ATLC EXTENDING FROM PORTUGAL TO E OF THE CANARY ISLANDS TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AT 17N26W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS NOT CAUSING ANY SIGNIFICANT WEATHER IN THE DISCUSSION AREA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON