000 AXNT20 KNHC 071215 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT THU JUN 07 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 11N31W 7N33W 2N34W. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 20N67W AND ENDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL PLAINS OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 4N25W 4N33W AND 3N44W...BECOMING INDISTINCT AFTER 3N44W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS TRINIDAD AND NEARBY COASTAL NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 61W AND 63W...FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 55W AND 59W...IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND COASTAL PLAINS OF GUYANA AND SURINAME...AND FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 57W AND 59W IN NORTHWESTERN SURINAME AND CENTRAL GUYANA. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 3N TO 9N TO THE EAST OF 53W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 97W...PASSING THROUGH TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MEXICO. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TOWARD SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA/THE MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 21N77W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. MOISTURE AT ALL LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST OF 90W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N86W 24N97W. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 28N...INCLUDING ACROSS FLORIDA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 23N68W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4... FOR 20 KNOT WINDS TO THE SOUTH OF 27N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE PASSES THROUGH PANAMA TO NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...AND BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN TAKING PLACE FROM 18N TO 20N BETWEEN 90W IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND 94W IN THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS...IN A PERSISTENT AREA OF BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THE LOW PRESSURE AREA RUNS THROUGH MEXICO NORTH-TO-SOUTH...AND THEN INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 20N67W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...TOWARD LAKE MARACAIBO OF NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...EVENTUALLY INTO SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 70W AND 80W...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 16N TO THE WEST OF 80W. A TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 70W FROM THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO VENEZUELA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MIDDLE AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA THAT IS BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 20N67W AND ENDS IN SOUTHWESTERN COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA AND 83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA. THE STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT WAS NEAR THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA HAS DISSIPATED FOR THE MOMENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR A FEW AREAS OF WINDS AND SEAS. ONE SUCH AREA CONSISTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 10 FEET GOES FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 68W AND 78W. A SECOND AREA CONSISTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS TO 9 FEET FROM 11N TO 19N TO THE EAST OF 82W. THE THIRD AREA GOES FROM 13N TO 20N TO THE WEST OF 80W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS AND AND 8 FOOT SEA. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES BETWEEN 60W AND 90W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N53W TO 21N77W AT THE COAST OF CUBA. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N62W TO 31N67W AND 32N70W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N70W TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N73W. THE STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM 32N73W TO THE NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA COAST...AND THEN ALONG 29N/31N BETWEEN NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N25W TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N42W...TO 28N52W...TO 23N68W...TO 24N75W IN THE BAHAMAS... INTO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE WESTERN SAHARA TO 18N26W...JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 24N40W...WITH NO NEARBY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED TO A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN COLD FRONT/STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS ALONG 30N/31N...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 24N BETWEEN 35W AND 62W FOR TRADEWIND FLOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT