000 AXNT20 KNHC 061745 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT WED JUN 06 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 10N24W TO 5N27W MOVING W AT ABOUT 5-10 KT. THOUGH LESS THAN 24 HOURS AGO...THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE AXIS S OF 5N. TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ANALYZED FROM 18N65W TO 10N69W MOVING WNW 10-15 KT. LOCATION WAS BASED ON SAN JUAN UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATING THE PASSAGE OF THE WAVE AT 1200 UTC. A BULK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY E PF THE WAVE AXIS TO THE LESSER ANTILLES. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC BASIN THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 6N30W ALONG 4N30W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N52W. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM N OF THE ITCZ. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS N OF 1N E OF 18W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. THESE TWO MAIN AREAS OF CONVECTION ARE REPRESENTED AS A PAIR OF NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGHS ANALYZED FROM 27N86W TO 24N89W...AND 25N91W TO 20N95W RESPECTIVELY. THE CONVECTION IS SHOWN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 20N-24N BETWEEN 90W-95W...AND FROM 23N-28N E OF 90W. MARINE OBS FROM BUOYS IN THE VICINITY OF THE EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH HAVE REPORTED WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 25 KTS. WHILE LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE FROM SURFACE CYCLONIC CURVATURE CAN BE SEEN FROM SATELLITE VIEW ON BOTH FEATURES...THE MAIN SUPPORT FOR CONVECTION DRIVEN BY MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS WEATHER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY TRACK EASTWARD. THEREFORE...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO DETERIORATE OVER THE WESTERN COASTAL WATERS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN BASIN. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED TO A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THIS REGION. SEE TROPICAL WAVES DISCUSSION ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. THE FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA IS RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NICARAGUA. TRADEWIND FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN...BECOMING SSE N OF 15N W OF 80W. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE QUICKLY MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FAR WEST ATLANTIC N OF 25N W OF 74W. CURRENTLY...NO SURFACE FEATURES ARE RELATED TO THE ACTIVITY AS UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN PROVIDER FOR THESE SHOWERS. THE PATTERN LIES BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLANTIC IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N42W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING EASTWARD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION TO COLD AND ENTER OUR FAR NW AREA WITH CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SO FAR...COMPUTER MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTIES DEPICTING THIS SCENARIO AND THUS CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW. HOWEVER...DESPITE THE LOW CONFIDENCE LEVEL ON FORECASTED SURFACE FEATURES...EXPECT MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE WESTERN ATLANTIC DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA