000 AXNT20 KNHC 051749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1735 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS COUGH UP IN BETWEEN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND THE ITCZ...ANALYZED FROM 11N21W TO 5N23W MOVING W AT ABOUT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE IS EMBEDDED IN A DEEP MOISTURE SURGE NOTED IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-8N BETWEEN 20W-25W. TROPICAL WAVE IS ABOUT 270 NM OFF THE LESSER ANTILLES ISLANDS ANALYZED FROM 13N54W TO 8N56W MOVING WNW NEAR 15 KT. A BULK OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDS THE WAVE AXIS IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A RECENT ASCAT PASS REVEALED LITTLE LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND THE AXIS. SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ABOUT TO MOVE OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES S OF MARTINIQUE. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN TO A SURFACE TROUGH AS IT MOVES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... A SMALL PORTION OF THE MONSOON TROUGH ENTERS THE ATLC BASIN THROUGH THE NORTHERN COAST OF GUINEA NEAR 11N15W TO 7N20W. THE ITCZ STARTS FROM 5N25W...WEST OF TROPICAL WAVE AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N32W 5N40W TO 3N48W. BESIDES CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE...SCATTERED WEAK TO ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 80 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COVER A GREAT AREA OF THE GULF THIS AFTERNOON. FROM SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR VIEW...THE COVERAGE TAKES FROM 22N-30N E OF 93W. THESE SHOWERS ARE MOVING ENE AT ABOUT 15 KTS. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS FOCUSED ON THE CENTRAL BASIN FROM 22N-26 BETWEEN 85W-92W. DESPITE RIDGING ALOFT...THE OVERALL ACTIVITY IS MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRIVEN...AS A WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. THIS JET IS NOTED ON MOST S-ERN CONUS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS. MODEL DATA LOCATES THE JET AT THE BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. ANOTHER SMALL AREA OF WEEK DEVELOPMENT IS FOUND OFF THE COAST OF TEXAS S OF CORPUS CHRISTI. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN UNSTABLE ACROSS THE GULF DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION MOVES EASTWARD. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS MOST OF THE BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. ONLY SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS EXTEND ACROSS THE IMMEDIATE COAST OF PANAMA ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY. THE OVERALL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA ARE RELATED TO AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE EASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS. TRADEWIND FLOW BETWEEN 15-20 KTS IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN WITH THE STRONGER WINDS NEAR THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA BETWEEN 68W-75W. WHILE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIR ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...SHORT RANGE COMPUTER MODELS SUGGEST SOME MODERATE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY DEVELOPING OVER THE FAR NW BASIN ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WATERS DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ALSO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN LESSER ANTILLES TOWARDS HISPANIOLA DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MOST OF THE ATLANTIC BASIN'S DISCUSSION AREA IS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SURFACE RIDE ANCHORED BY A 1027 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 28N35W. ONLY A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM 32N51W TO 24N67W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY COVERS THE FAR WRN AREA S OF 28N W OF 72W AFFECTING MOSTLY THE WATERS NEAR THE BAHAMAS. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. THIS FEATURE IS MOVING ESE AND IT COULD INTRODUCE SOME MODERATE CONVECTION TO OUR NORTHERN FRINGE DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GARCIA