000
AXNT20 KNHC 051120
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT TUE JUN 05 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 22N/23N FROM 5N TO 11N.
DRIFTING WESTWARD. ANY NEARBY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS PART
OF THE ITCZ PRECIPITATION.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 55W/56W FROM 6N TO 13N.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM
12N TO 13N BETWEEN 55W AND 57W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 
10N58W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE
IN THE WATER TO THE SOUTH OF 13N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU
NEAR 11N15W TO 7N16W 5N21W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE 
CONTINUES FROM 5N21W TO 4N33W 4N39W...TO 1N50W AT THE COAST OF 
EXTREME NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N 
BETWEEN 37W AND 41W...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG 
WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 5N10W 3N5W...BEYOND THE PRIME 
MERIDIAN ALONG 1N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE 
SOUTH OF 10N TO THE EAST OF 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
THE UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT WAS IN MEXICO 
NEAR 24N102W ABOUT 24 HOURS AGO HAS DISSIPATED...GIVING WAY TO 
BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW...THAT NOW COVERS MEXICO 
AND THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN 90W AND 107W. SCATTERED MODERATE
TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING FROM 23N 
TO 26N BETWEEN 88W AND 91W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE
TO THE SOUTH OF 28N TO THE EAST OF 92W...AND TO THE WEST OF 92W.
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. THE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS RELATED TO THE UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS 
WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND THE NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF 
MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH A 1014 MB HIGH PRESSURE 
CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N84W...TOWARD SOUTHERN COASTAL LOUISIANA. 
PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE 
OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND
8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 25N BETWEEN 84W AND 90W.

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...BEYOND THE 
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM SIX HOURS AGO HAS 
DIMINISHED. IT IS POSSIBLE STILL THAT RAINSHOWERS COVER CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND COASTAL WATERS TO THE SOUTH OF GUATEMALA. AN UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA 
NEAR 18N63W TO A 15N66W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO A 7N69W 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE 
MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA 
RICA. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE 
PRECIPITATION IS ALONG THE PACIFIC OCEAN COASTS OF PANAMA AND 
COSTA RICA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND 
THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4...FOR 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS
AND 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 32N47W. BROAD UPPER 
LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS TO THE NORTH OF 30N TO THE WEST OF 
48W. A SEPARATE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N60W TO 22N66W.
THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT 
PASSES THROUGH 32N51W TO 30N53W. THE COLD FRONT DISSIPATES FROM 
30N53W TO 24N66W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS 
WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 
32N47W 26N61W 21N70W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N26W
TO A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 30N30W TO  
26N39W...23N48W AND 20N65W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS 
FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR 20 KNOT WINDS THAT ARE RELATED
TO THE CURRENT COLD FRONT...AND TO THE SOUTH OF 19N
BETWEEN 35W AND 62W FOR TRADEWIND FLOW.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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MT