000
AXNT20 KNHC 041720
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT MON JUN 04 2012

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL 
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

TROPICAL WAVE IS OFF THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 12N20W TO 
6N23W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER 
IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE 
WAVE. SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE WAVE 
AXIS. 

TROPICAL WAVE IS N OF SOUTH AMERICA FROM 12N51W TO 5N54W MOVING 
W AT 15 KT. SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS A SURGE 
OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-12N BETWEEN 50W-55W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS OVER W AFRICA AND TERMINATES ON THE 
COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N16W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS BETWEEN THE 
TWO TROPICAL WAVES ALONG 6N24W 4N35W 4N51W. WIDELY SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 2N-4N 
BETWEEN 1W-6W...AND FROM 4N-8N BETWEEN 11W-15W. SIMILAR 
CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-6N BETWEEN 18W-21W...AND FROM 4N-5N 
BETWEEN 34W-37W.   

...DISCUSSION...

THE GULF OF MEXICO...
AS OF 1500 UTC...A 1017 MB HIGH IS CENTERED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS 
AND CUBA AT 23N79W. 5-15 KT SW-W WINDS ARE OVER THE E GULF OF 
MEXICO...THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WHILE 
5-10 KT S-SW WINDS ARE OVER THE W GULF. A GOOD AMOUNT OF 
TROPICAL MOISTURE HAS ADVECTED FROM THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE CENTRAL GULF. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-27N BETWEEN 85W-93W. IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF FROM AN UPPER 
LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. UPPER LEVEL 
MOISTURE WITH SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER THE 
ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT...LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

THE CARIBBEAN SEA...
A 1009 MB LOW IS CENTERED OVER N COLOMBIA AT 10N75W. A 1017 MB 
HIGH IS CENTERED N OF CUBA. THE RESULTANT SURFACE PRESSURE 
GRADIENT IS PRODUCING 10-25 KT TRADEWINDS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA 
WITH STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER COSTA RICA FROM 9N-11N BETWEEN 
83W-85W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 
16N-19N BETWEEN 87W-89W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS WITH 
SCATTERED RAIN AND SHOWERS ARE OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND W 
CUBA. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS AT 17N88W WITH CONSIDERABLE UPPER 
LEVEL MOISTURE. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER VENEZUELA AT 
7N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN S OF 
JAMAICA. UPPER LEVEL HIGH CLOUDS REMAINS OVER TRINIDAD AND 
BARBADOS. EXPECT CONTINUED CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...CENTRAL AMERICA...AND THE YUCATAN 
PENINSULA. ALSO EXPECT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO ADVECT OVER THE 
WINDWARD ISLANDS DUE TO THE APPROACHING TROPICAL WAVE.  

THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...
THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 31N60W 
TO 26N68W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-26N BETWEEN 
63W-67W. THE TAIL END OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC ALONG 31N36W 29N42W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM 
OF THE FRONT. A 1025 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF THE 
CANARY ISLANDS AT 31N20W PRODUCING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT BOTH 
COLD FRONTS TO MOVE E OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CONVECTION 
OVER THE W ATLANTIC FRONT. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA