000 AXNT20 KNHC 031118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT SUN JUN 03 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1015 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 12N36W TO 5N41W MOVING W NEAR 10-15 KT. WAVE IS N OF THE ITCZ AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING A SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE. NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM W AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 7N19W TO 5N23W WHERE THE ITCZ CONTINUES ALONG 3N32W TO 2N45W TO INLAND OVER SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 1N51W. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE FROM THE EQUATOR TO 9N E OF 16W ACROSS THE PRIME MERIDIAN INCLUDING INLAND PORTIONS OF SW AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E CONUS INTO THE FAR NE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE W ATLC WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTERED N OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AT 03/0900 UTC THAT EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC CROSSING CENTRAL FLORIDA NEAR MELBOURNE WHERE IT BECOMES A WEAKENING STATIONARY FRONT AS IT ENTERS THE GULF NEAR SARASOTA CONTINUING TO 27N85W. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER THE FAR NE GULF LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. A WEAK 1017 MB IS NW OF THE FRONT NEAR 28N87W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF ANCHORED IN THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO THE LOUISIANA/TEXAS COAST. THIS UPPER RIDGE IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE N OVER THE S GULF AND COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS FROM 23N91W TO S MEXICO NEAR 17N94W ARE SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 21N BETWEEN 94W-97W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 24N E OF 86W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND OVER CUBA. THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF IS UNDER FAIR WEATHER THIS MORNING. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE LATER THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NE GULF WILL SHIFT SE TO THE SE GULF TODAY THEN MEANDER THROUGH THU WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO THE NE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN W OF 70W ANCHORED BY AN UPPER HIGH JUST OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA NEAR 15N83W EXTENDING A RIDGE AXIS NNW THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SECOND RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING NE INTO THE W ATLC OVER E CUBA. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA NEAR 8N77W ALONG 12N81W TO 17N85W AND ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN INTO THE GULF OF HONDURAS S OF 18N W OF 85W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC OVER THE E CARIBBEAN ACROSS GUADELOUPE TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA JUST E OF THE ABC ISLANDS. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN GENERATING MODERATE TO FRESH TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE BASIN AND FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE S/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TRADE WINDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL REMAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROAD UPPER TROUGH THAT COVERS THE E CONUS AND NE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS INTO THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 71W SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT AT 03/0900 UTC EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N73W ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR MELBOURNE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT OVER A PORTION OF THE W ATLC LIMITING SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT TO A A SMALL CLUSTER OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 75W-78W. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS A RIDGE AXIS ACROSS E CUBA TO OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC ALONG 25N68W TO BEYOND 32N61W. DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ON THE W SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE COUPLED WITH OROGRAPHIC LIFTING IS GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND OVER W CUBA AND WITHIN 90 NM ALONG THE N COAST OF CUBA W OF 77W THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE W ATLC WITHIN 60/75 NM OF LINE FROM 27N71W TO BEYOND 32N67W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE E/CENTRAL ATLC EXPENDING S TO OVER THE E CARIBBEAN AND SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE N PERIPHERY OF THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N44W ALONG 31N49W TO BEYOND 32N57W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 33N41W ALONG 28N49W TO 28N55W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE TROUGH E OF 50W. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 16N31W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1021 MB HIGH NEAR 29N23W EXTENDING A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS S OF THE CENTRAL ATLC FRONT/ SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH A 1019 MB HIGH NEAR 22N57W CONTINUING W OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. W ATLC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E N OF 27N THROUGH MON NIGHT. A SECOND COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE W ATLC N OF 30N LATE TUE THROUGH THU. 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