000 AXNT20 KNHC 022339 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 04N39W TO 12N35W MOVING W AT 10 TO 15 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE ITCZ AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE BETWEEN 31W AND 39W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N BETWEEN 35W-39W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W TO 04N26W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 04N26W TO 09N36W...THEN RESUMING WEST OF THE TROPICAL WAVE FROM 03N41W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 47W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS NOTED. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING IS OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND DIPS SOUTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND NORTH-CENTRAL GULF AS NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. WHILE MOST OF THE MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IS LOCATED NORTHEAST OF THE REGION IN THE WESTERN NORTH ATLC...THE TROUGHING DOES SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM THE SW NORTH ATLC ACROSS THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA AND INTO THE EASTERN GULF ALONG 28N83W TO 28N88W. THE FRONT REMAINS DRY AND PRECIPITATION FREE THIS EVENING WITH A GENERALLY DRIER AIRMASS SETTLING IN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1017 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SW ALABAMA NEAR 32N88W. SOUTH OF THE FRONT HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS ANALYZED FROM THE SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA NEAR 26N81W INTO THE SE GULF WATERS NEAR 24N85W. THIS ALONG WITH A FAIRLY DIFFLUENT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ATMOSPHERE DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION ANCHORED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS S OF 24N E OF 86W. THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE IN OVER THE EASTERN GULF BY EARLY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF LATE MONDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N82W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N65W. W OF 80W ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARDS CUBA AND THE FLORIDA STRAITS. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 19N-24N BETWEEN 80W-86W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. OTHER AREAS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE OCCURRING OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF A NARROW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING FROM 20N57W TO OVER NW VENEZUELA NEAR 10N69W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 60W-80W THIS EVENING. THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THE FAIR WEATHER IS THAT A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 13N E OF 64W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 16N82W TO BEYOND 32N65W. MUCH OF THE FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DIFFLUENT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN 300 NM EAST OF A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED FROM 26N81W TO 32N74W...INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE BAHAMAS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 22N-29N BETWEEN 55W-65W. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A PAIR 1020 MB HIGHS...ONE CENTERED NEAR 22N51W AND THE OTHER CENTERED NEAR 26N29W...CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 55W. HOWEVER...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N48W TO 29N57W AND IS LIKELY GENERATING ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. EXAMINING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM CIMSS...MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS SHROUDED IN SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST FROM 10N-30 E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN