000 AXNT20 KNHC 021804 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SAT JUN 02 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 9N34W 6N37W 2N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE ITCZ IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 8N20W AND 7N33W. THE ITCZ AXIS IS NOT APPARENT TO THE WEST OF THE 9N34W 2N38W TROPICAL WAVE. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION THAT IS IN THE ITCZ IS FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 35W AND 38W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 35W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE EAST OF 10W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 25N103W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT IS MOVING AROUND THE CENTER COVERS THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN...MEXICO...TEXAS...AND THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 16N TO 30N BETWEEN THE GULF COASTS OF TEXAS AND MEXICO AND 110W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS COVER THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE WEST OF 90W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ALSO MOVES NORTHEASTWARD...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CUTS THROUGH ALABAMA AND GEORGIA AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ABOUT 120 NM TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT FROM 28N TO 32N. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION EXISTS...IS DISSIPATING... AND/OR IS RE-DEVELOPING IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM CUBA BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. A 1016 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 26N92W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD...INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE NORTH OF 18N TO THE WEST OF 81W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 22N85W 16N81W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE SOUTH OF 16N BETWEEN 80W AND 84W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 26N49W TO 17N59W...PASSING BEYOND THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N65W...AND ULTIMATELY TOWARD LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 7N74W IN COLOMBIA. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 18N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 28N55W 25N57W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 27N TO 33N BETWEEN 45W AND 56W. MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS DEVELOPING AND/OR WEAKENING AND POSSIBLY RE-DEVELOPING FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 57W AND 65W. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 26N49W TO 17N59W...PASSING BEYOND THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 12N65W...AND ULTIMATELY TOWARD LAKE MARACAIBO IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA AND 7N74W IN COLOMBIA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE FROM 24N TO 30N BETWEEN 42W AND 55W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 33N14W TO 26N29W TO A 1021 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N46W... TO 24N65W TO 21N79W NEAR CUBA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS THAT ACCOMPANY THE 31N80W 30N81W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT