000 AXNT20 KNHC 012350 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 03N31W TO 11N29W MOVING W AT 15 TO 20 KT. THE WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXIS WITH TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY INDICATING AN AREA OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE SURROUNDING THE WAVE BETWEEN 27W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 29W-34W AND IS LIKELY MORE CLOSELY RELATED TO THE MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ ZONE. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 12N16W TO 08N21W TO 06N30W. THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 06N30W TO THE EQUATOR NEAR 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 240 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 16W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION SOUTHWARD OVER THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST NEAR 30N90W TO A BASE OVER THE NW GULF WATERS NEAR 27N94W. THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ANALYZED FROM 30N89W TO 28N97W THAT REMAINS CONVECTION FREE THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AS A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N84W TO 25N87W TO 21N94W WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS OCCURRING SE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION IS LOCATED S OF 24N BETWEEN 81W-88W. THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGHING IS FORECAST TO SWEEP EAST OF THE BASIN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A SURFACE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO ANCHOR ITSELF OVER THE EASTERN GULF EARLY SUNDAY AND PROVIDE E-SE WINDS IN THE RANGE OF 10 TO 15 KT OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF THROUGH TUESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 16N80W AND EXTENDS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS N-NE OVER MUCH OF THE SW NORTH ATLC TO BEYOND 32N71W. W OF 80W ON THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS TRANSPORTING MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHEASTWARD FROM GUATEMALA OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TOWARDS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. GIVEN THE DIFFLUENT PATTERN ALOFT...WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND SCATTERED TSTMS ARE OCCURRING WITHIN A 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15N91W IN SOUTHERN GUATEMALA TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 24N83W. THIS AREA INCLUDES THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WHERE THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION IS ONGOING THIS EVENING. FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS MOISTURE AND CONVECTION...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED OVER EASTERN HONDURAS AND MOST OF NICARAGUA AS SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY FROM 11N-16N BETWEEN 83W-86W. THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN FALLS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND A PORTION OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 20N60W TO OVER NORTH-CENTRAL VENEZUELA NEAR 11N65W. THIS SUBSIDENCE IS PROVIDING FOR OVERALL FAIR CONDITIONS OVER THE BASIN BETWEEN 65W-80W THIS EVENING. WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE FAR EASTERN CARIBBEAN...A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME SE WATERS ADJACENT TO THE WINDWARD ISLANDS S OF 14N E OF 65W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SW NORTH ATLC THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS NOTED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM OVER EASTERN CUBA TO BEYOND 32N71W. MUCH OF THE FLOW WEST OF THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS DIFFLUENT AND CONTINUES TO SUPPORT SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS W OF 73W... INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND FLORIDA STRAITS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO INDICATES THAT MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS FOUND ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS POSSIBLE FROM 20N-31N BETWEEN 57W-68W. FARTHER TO THE EAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC...A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH CENTERED NEAR 24N46W CONTINUES TO PROVIDE MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER E OF 57W. HOWEVER...A DISSIPATING COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 32N22W TO 26N35W. ASIDE FROM A SUBTLE WIND SHIFT...LITTLE MOISTURE IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS BOUNDARY. EXAMINING THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER TRACKING PRODUCT FROM CIMSS...MUCH OF THE EASTERN ATLC IS SHROUDED IN SUSPENDED SAHARAN DUST S OF 30N E OF 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ HUFFMAN