000 AXNT20 KNHC 011814 AAA TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...AMD NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI JUN 01 2012 AMENDED IN ORDER TO UPDATE THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SECTION... TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N26W 8N28W 2N28W. THE GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE PLACEMENT OF THIS WAVE...WITH STRONGEST SIGNAL AT 700 HPA. NO SURFACE SIGNAL HAS BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASSES. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATIONS REVEAL CYCLONIC TURNING ABOUT A MOISTURE MAXIMUM NEAR THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE WAVE. THE DAKAR UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED THIS WAVE PASSING THE STATION ALOFT AROUND 12Z ON 30 MAY. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ABOUT 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE WAVE. A WEAKENING AND ILL DEFINED CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N65W...CROSSING THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO...TO 14N68W TO 8N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND REACHES 11N63W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W IS BEING ENHANCED BY SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. STRAIGHT LINE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION BELOW 700 HPA ARE AIDING IN MASKING THE WAVE SIGNAL AND WEAKENING THE WAVE STRUCTURE. TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER ANIMATIONS SHOW THAT THE HIGHEST MOISTURE CONTENT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE TO THE SOUTH OF 15N. NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR THAT RANGES FROM 40 TO 50 KNOTS...THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...ALSO IS ACTING TO CUT OFF ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER THAT IS BEHIND THE WAVE MOVED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS AND NOW IT IS PROVIDING THE POTENTIAL FOR 25 TO 30 KNOT WIND GUSTS IN ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 18N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC WAS 0.41 INCHES...AND FOR TRINIDAD IT WAS 0.20 INCHES. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 9N18W AND 7N25W. THE ITCZ AXIS CONTINUES FROM 7N25W TO 3N35W AND ALONG 41W FROM THE EQUATOR TO 1N. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 15W AND 17W...AND WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N19W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN MEXICO NEAR 25N106W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE NORTH OF 22N BETWEEN 100W AND 117W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN OCCURRING IN NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO. PRECIPITATION ALREADY HAS WEAKENED ALONG THE MEXICO COAST FROM 22N TO THE TEXAS/MEXICO BORDER. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EAST CENTRAL AND CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH LOUISIANA AND MISSISSIPPI TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. THE LOUISIANA-MISSISSIPPI TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND SOUTH TEXAS ALONG 27N. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA MOVES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...ACROSS CUBA...AND BEYOND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN CLUSTERS COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA TO SOUTH FLORIDA BETWEEN 77W IN THE BAHAMAS AND 89W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION HAVE SPREAD FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEASTWARD...INTO MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THAT PART OF CUBA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 80W APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS BEING AFFECTED BY SCATTERED STRONG PRECIPITATION AT THIS MOMENT. ALL THE REST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION LINGERS ALONG IN THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS FROM 13N TO 17N BETWEEN 81W AND 85W. A WEAKENING AND ILL DEFINED CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 20N65W... CROSSING THE EASTERN TIP OF PUERTO RICO...TO 14N68W TO 8N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS AND REACHES 11N63W ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS PASSING THROUGH THE AREA OF THIS TROUGH. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FROM THE COAST OF VENEZUELA TO 16N BETWEEN 62W AND 67W IS BEING ENHANCED BY SOME INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TROPICAL WAVE AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR GUADELOUPE FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC WAS 0.41 INCHES...AND FOR TRINIDAD IT WAS 0.20 INCHES. BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA...MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE GULF OF URABA OF COLOMBIA...13N81W...BEYOND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N74W IN COLOMBIA...TO 8N79W...BEYOND 9N83W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WAS COVERING THE AREA FROM 3N TO 10N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W AROUND 01/0915 UTC. THAT PRECIPITATION HAS WEAKENED...LEAVING ONLY ONE CELL OF STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 9N76W ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3... FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 TO 11 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 66W AND 81W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 34N65W 31N63W 26N63W AND 20N64W. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N64W TO 30N67W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N67W TO 28N71W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 34N59W 31N63W 28N70W. BROKEN MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE TO THE NORTH OF 18N BETWEEN 48W AND 70W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR BERMUDA FOR THE TIME PERIOD ENDING AT 01/1200 UTC IS 0.51 INCHES. A SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N48W TO A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N55W TO 18N60W...PASSING BEYOND THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA ISLANDS. THIS TROUGH IS INTERACTING WITH THE 20N69W 8N69W TROPICAL WAVE. THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REACHES 31N18W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE NORTH OF 26N TO THE EAST OF 40W. THE TROUGH AND CYCLONIC WIND FLOW SUPPORT THE COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N22W TO 30N25W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 30N25W TO 28N31W. CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION ARE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES 32N17W TO 26N30W TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 24N46W...TO 25N68W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE...TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE EAST OF 40W...FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 38W AND 47W...AND WITH THE 31N79W 29N81W COLD FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT