000 AXNT20 KNHC 301145 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 0900 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 33.1N 79.8W...ABOUT 20 NM NNE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...OR ABOUT 120 NM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING ENE AT 11 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 30 KT GUSTS TO 40 KT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER VERY SHORTLY WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING LATER ON IN THE DAY...AND BERYL COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY...EXTEND MAINLY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 150 NM OF THE CENTER IMPACTING NE SOUTH CAROLINA AND SE NORTH CAROLINA. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N53W TO 4N55W MOVING W AT 5-10 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 50W-57W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 12N15W TO 5N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N21W ALONG 6N26W 3N39W 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 11W-21W. SIMILAR ACTIVITY IS FROM 2N-8N BETWEEN 41W-52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 27N89W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. A CLUSTER OF STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS HAS ALSO POPPED UP FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE FROM 30N-31N BETWEEN 83W-87W. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN THAT HAS DRIFTED NWD WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THE AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N-20N BETWEEN 83W-88W WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH OF THE SW CARIBBEAN INCLUDING COSTA RICA AND PANAMA S OF 12N ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1007 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 9N75W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N E OF 63W. MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS NEARING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA AND IS ABOUT TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS FROM 20N-27N BETWEEN 67W-80W ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR 35N73W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A WEAK 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N61W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N57W TO 24N64W SUPPORTING A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 27N-29N BETWEEN 55W-60W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 47N40W TO 14N53W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND TROPICAL ATLC SUPPORTING BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A PAIR OF 1021 MB HIGHS NEAR 24N46W AND 26N27W WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON