000 AXNT20 KNHC 300552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... AS OF 0300 UTC...TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 32.2N 81.3W...ABOUT 15 NM WNW OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA...OR ABOUT 75 NM WSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING ENE AT 9 KT. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS OF 25 KT GUSTS TO 35 KT. BERYL IS EXPECTED TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER SOMETIME THIS MORNING WITH A POSSIBILITY OF SOME STRENGTHENING LATER ON IN THE DAY...AND BERYL COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS...SOME HEAVY EXTEND MAINLY IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM WITHIN 200 NM OF THE CENTER. SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO ARE FARTHER S ACROSS NRN FLORIDA AND OFFSHORE TO THE E. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N51W TO 3N56W MOVING W AT 10-15 KT. THE WAVE LIES IN AN AREA OF MAXIMUM MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NUMEROUS MODERATE/SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 49W-55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-9N BETWEEN 49W-55W...AND FROM 11N-13N BETWEEN 54W-58W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF GUINEA-BISSAU AT 11N15W TO 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W ALONG 4N37W 8N63W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N BETWEEN 11W-18W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 36W-40W....AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 42W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE GULF OF MEXICO BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH AXIS OVER MEXICO...AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM ERN LOUISIANA TO THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE. THIS DRY AIR ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A WEAK 1015 MB HIGH NEAR 26N90W IS HELPING MAINTAIN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE BASIN. CYCLONIC FLOW REMAINS OVER THE NE GULF AROUND THE CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THIS AREA AROUND BERYL. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO IN THE ERN BAY OF CAMPECHE...ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE NEAR A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 23N88W TO 13N93W. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING ALONG WITH DRY STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN MAINTAINING FAIR CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...AN AREA OF MOISTURE IN THE NW CARIBBEAN WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT INTO THE SE GULF OF MEXICO LIKELY SUPPORTING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THIS AREA. CARIBBEAN SEA... UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH W OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 76W IS PROVIDING MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN. CURRENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE NEAR THE ERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE NW CARIBBEAN. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALSO COVER MUCH OF NICARAGUA...COSTA RICA...AND PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE E PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS COSTA RICA TO A 1005 MB LOW OVER NRN COLOMBIA AT 8N74W. DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CENTRAL AND ERN CARIBBEAN AROUND THE E SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE BASIN PROVIDING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THIS AREA. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 15-20 KTS COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN. AN AREA OF MOISTURE IS MAKING ITS WAY INTO THE SE CARIBBEAN FROM THE TROPICAL ATLC AHEAD OF A TROPICAL WAVE STILL E OF THE ISLANDS. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 15N E OF 65W. MOISTURE IN THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES COULD BE POSSIBLE IN AREAS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL. ATLANTIC... TROPICAL DEPRESSION BERYL IS NEARING THE COAST OF GEORGIA AND ABOUT TO EMERGE BACK OVER WATER. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE IMPACTING THE BAHAMAS FROM 21N-27N BETWEEN 69W-78W ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS CUBA TO NEAR 33N75W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS A 1020 MB SURFACE HIGH NEAR 32N69W. AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS IS TO THE E FROM 26N-29N BETWEEN 55W-61W. A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDING FROM AN UPPER LOW NEAR 46N40W TO 12N54W. THE UPPER TROUGH IS ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR THE TROPICAL WAVE IN THE TROPICAL ATLC. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE COVERS THE ERN AND TROPICAL ATLC CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 16N13W. THE UPPER RIDGE SUPPORTS BROAD SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1023 MB HIGH NEAR 23N40W...AND A 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 26N27W WHICH ARE PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS MUCH OF THE BASIN. GOES-R DUST ENHANCEMENT IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW AN AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA TO NEAR 45W WHICH FURTHER SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND FAIR CONDITIONS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON