000 AXNT20 KNHC 271802 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT SUN MAY 27 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... TROPICAL STORM BERYL IS CENTERED NEAR 30.1N 79.9W AT 27/1800 UTC...ABOUT 110 MILES/175 KM TO THE EAST OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA...AND ABOUT 120 MILES/195 KM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. BERYL IS MOVING WEST AT 9 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 55 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS INCREASING CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE STORM MAINLY WITHIN 90 NM OVER THE SE QUADRANT FROM THE CENTER...AND BERYL HAS TRANSITIONED FROM SUBTROPICAL TO TROPICAL. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLC TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED FROM 15N41W TO 07N42W ON THE 12 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS...CLOSE TO AN AREA OF CYCLONIC TURNING NOTED IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS IN THE SATELLITE DERIVED WIND FIELDS. A 1252 UTC ASCAT PASS SHOWED MAINLY STRAIGHT NE FLOW AT THE SURFACE...INDICATING THIS FEATURE MAY BE MORE OF A MID LEVEL WAVE AT THE CURRENT TIME. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTHEAST THAT TOGETHER WITH FRESH NE TRADE WIND FLOW IS GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INITIALIZE WITH A BROAD MID LEVEL TROUGH AROUND 45W...BUT WITH ONLY MODEST CYCLONIC TURNING AT THE SURFACE PUSHING WEST THROUGH 50W S OF 10N THROUGH LATE SUN. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE TROPICAL EASTERN ATLC FROM THE BORDER OF GUINEA AND SIERRA LEONE TO 06N18W. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 06N18W TO 03N27W TO 05N37W TO 04N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION NOTED WITHIN 90 NM EITHER SIDE OF ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 18W AND 28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM BERYL TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA. DRY SUBSIDENT NORTHERLY FLOW ON THE WEST SIDE OF BERYL IS KEEPING ALMOST CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF TODAY. A 1017 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST. LIGHT NE TO E SURFACE WINDS PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR MODERATE SE FLOW CLOSE TO THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS NOTED OFF THE EAST COAST OF YUCATAN...AND FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO JUST S OF JAMAICA NEAR 17N76W. THIS ACTIVITY IS IN PART RELATED TO AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING FROM BERYL TO THE NE YUCATAN. MODERATE SE FLOW PERSISTS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...WITH MODERATE TO FRESH E FLOW OVER THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN CONVERGING OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND AIDING CONVECTION IN THAT AREA. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE REMAINS FAIRLY HIGH OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN...IN MOIST SW MID AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW BETWEEN THE UPPER TROUGH N OF THE AREA AND A MID TO UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 8 TO 9 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...FROM 11N TO 17N BETWEEN 67W AND 77W. ATLANTIC...MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS ALONG 68W TO THE EAST OF BERYL. AN ASSOCIATED 1023 MB NEAR 34N68W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS NOTED FROM 22N56W TO 18N62W. 10 TO 15 KT E FLOW IS NOTED BETWEEN THE TROUGH AND THE HIGH PRES...FROM 20N TO 24N BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. FURTHER EAST...AN UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 32N40W TO 13N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 08N TO 10N BETWEEN 39W AND 42W ON THE SE SIDE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...AND NEAR A WEAK MID LEVEL TROPICAL WAVE NOTED ON SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS. A DEEP LAYER RIDGE DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC WITH A 1024 SURFACE HIGH CENTERED NEAR 29N27W. SAHARAN DUST IS NOTED FROM 10N TO 25N E OF 40W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS THAT ARE OCCURRING TO THE NORTH OF 28N TO THE WEST OF 73W...RELATED TO THE CONDITIONS AROUND THE AREA OF TROPICAL STORM BERYL. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ CHRISTENSEN