000 AXNT20 KNHC 262342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 PM EDT SAT MAY 26 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL IS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 76.6W AT 26/2100 UTC...ABOUT 220 MI...350 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...OR ABOUT 315 MI...505 KM ENE OF JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA. BERYL IS MOVING SW AT 5 KT. MAX SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF THE CENTER FROM FROM 31N-33N BETWEEN 75W-78W. EASTERLY SWELL GENERATED FROM BERYL WILL IMPACT THE COASTAL AREAS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA TO NE FLORIDA...BRINGING HEIGHTENED RISK OF RIP CURRENTS AND COASTAL FLOODING. PLEASE REFER TO THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/ WTNT22 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS ON BERYL. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ANALYZED FROM 15N47W TO 4N51W MOVING W AT 20 KT. THE WAVE IS INTERACTING WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 24N49W...GIVING THE SURFACE WAVE A NE TO SW ORIENTATION. THE WAVE IS ALSO NEAR THE LEADING EDGE A DRIER SAHARAN AIRMASS. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 47W-54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 74W S OF 17N MOVING W AT 20-25 KT. CYCLONIC TURING IS NOTED IN LOW LEVEL SATELLITE DERIVED WIND DISPLAYS. CONVECTION REMAINS MINIMAL DESPITE DECENT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN THE S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NOTED ON SATELLITE AND REGIONAL SOUNDING DATA. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE COAST OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W AND EXTENDS TO 7N17W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N17W TO 6N30W TO 5N40W TO THE COAST OF FRENCH GUIANA AT 5N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 17W-23W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-9N BETWEEN 33W-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER N MISSISSIPPI AT 34N89W. 10-15 KT ANTICYCLONIC SURFACE WINDS DOMINATE THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS HOWEVER OVER INLAND S FLORIDA S OF FORT MYERS. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA...AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. IN THE UPPER LEVELS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL TO IMPACT NE FLORIDA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. SEE ABOVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE OVER CUBA...THE NW CARIBBEAN N OF 19N... AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS INLAND OVER NW VENEZUELA...N COLOMBIA...AND CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED S OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 17N69W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE LEEWARD AND WINDWARD ISLANDS. EXPECT THE TROPICAL WAVE AND SHOWERS TO MOVE W TO THE W CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC. SEE ABOVE. A 1024 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 36N67W. A SIMILAR 1024 MB HIGH IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC NEAR 31N26W. A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER BERYL AT 31N77W. ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N49W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF THIS LOW IS PRODUCING RAIN AND SHOWERS FROM 18N-26N BETWEEN 38W-46W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA