000 AXNT20 KNHC 260602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 805 AM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC... ...SPECIAL FEATURE... SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL FORMED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN AT 26/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL AT 26/0300 UTC IS NEAR 32N.5N 74.8W...ABOUT 305 MILES/490 KM TO THE EAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA. BERYL IS MOVING NORTH 8 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 40 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 50 KNOTS. PLEASE READ THE FORECAST ADVISORY BULLETIN UNDER THE AWIPS/WMO HEADERS...MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC... AND THE PUBLIC ADVISORY MIATCPAT2/WTNT32 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS AROUND THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER...FROM 32N TO 35N BETWEEN 76W AND 78W. A 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL FOR FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS... ENDING AT 25/1200 UTC IS 9.70 INCHES ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N44W 7N46W 2N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 46W AND 54W. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N66W 13N63W 9N68W IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES OFF THE SENEGAL COAST NEAR 14N17W TO 9N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N20W 6N30W 5N39W 6N47W... INTO NORTHERN COASTAL SURINAME NEAR 5N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 2N TO 4N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W AND FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 30W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A 95W RIDGE COVERS THE AREA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF 90W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS AWAY FROM THE AREA THAT SURROUNDS SUBTROPICAL STORM BERYL... PASSING ACROSS FLORIDA THAT IS TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TOWARD THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS BETWEEN THE WESTERN ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF MEXICO AND 100W...AND IN GUATEMALA...IN BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT4...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE MARINE WEATHER TO THE WEST OF 88W FOR 20 KNOT WINDS. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE SOUTHERNMOST PART OF A GULF OF MEXICO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 16N66W 13N63W 9N68W IN NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF 17N BETWEEN 60W AND 71W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE EAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RIDING ON TOP OF THE CYCLONIC FLOW. THE RIDGE RUNS FROM EASTERN HONDURAS AND NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND CUBA AND ACROSS THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE MONSOON TROUGH RUNS FROM WESTERN PANAMA BEYOND NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE SOUTH OF 12N TO THE WEST OF 76W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST... MIAOFFNT3...FOR SPECIFIC DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND THE 8 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS...BETWEEN 65W AND 79W. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LARGE SCALE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N22W TO 20N34W 12N48W AND NORTHERN GUYANA. A CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH IS PUSHING ITSELF MORE TO THE SOUTH...PASSING THROUGH 32N47W TO 26N52W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE RIDGE IS CONNECTED BY A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N28W...TO A 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N45W...TO A SECOND 1024 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS RANGING FROM 8 TO 12 FEET...TO THE WEST OF 71W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT