000 AXNT20 KNHC 251748 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 PM EDT FRI MAY 25 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC AND NW CARIBBEAN AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NE. CURRENTLY A 1011 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N76W WITH A TROUGH AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE LOW CENTER ALONG 33N75W 26N79W 23N81W. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING DOWN THE ERN SEABOARD TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A LARGE AREA OF DIFFLUENCE ALOFT E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS SUPPORTING STRONG SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT PERSIST E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ALONG A 160 NM WIDE SWATH FROM 18N82W ACROSS CENTRAL CUBA AND THE NW/CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO NEAR 30N73W. SHOWERS CONTINUE N OF 30N AND WRAP AROUND THE N SIDE OF THE LOW CENTER. HEAVY SHOWERS HAVE BEEN HITTING CENTRAL CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS FOR OVER 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM CENTRAL CUBA INDICATE RAINFALL TOTALS RANGING FROM 6-20 INCHES WHICH HAVE CONTRIBUTED TO FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES. HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS THIS AREA. FREEPORT BAHAMAS REPORTED A 24-HOUR TOTAL OF 9.7 INCHES. LUCKILY THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOW SHIFTED E OF FREEPORT. A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS INDICATES STRONG WINDS UP TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. WHILE THE LOW CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AT THIS TIME...UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE OF THE SYSTEM DEVELOPING INTO A TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THIS TIME PERIOD. INTERESTS IN THE SE UNITED STATES COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM. ...TROPICAL WAVES... TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 13N42W TO 6N43W MOVING W AT 15-20 KTS. THE WAVE LIES ON THE W SIDE OF A SURGE OF ENHANCED MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE DUE TO A DRY ENVIRONMENT SURROUNDING THE WAVE ALONG WITH SAHARAN DUST. TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 15N63W TO 10N65W MOVING W THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN AT 15-20 KT. THE WAVE LIES ON THE ERN SIDE OF AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE PRESENT IN TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A SMALL AREA OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 65W-67W. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS W AFRICA TO THE COAST OF SENEGAL AT 13N16W CONTINUING ACROSS ATLC WATER ALONG 6N20W 5N32W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 2N-5N BETWEEN 19W-25W...FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-33W...AND FROM 5N-7N BETWEEN 45W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... DRY AIR ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IS PROVIDING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS MOVING INTO THE WRN GULF EXTENDING FROM LOUISIANA TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE SUPPORTING WEAK SURFACE RIDGING. LIGHT ANTI-CYCLONIC FLOW IS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE INCREASING TO 15-20 KTS OVER THE FAR WRN GULF. WEAK SURFACE RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE GULF THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. CARIBBEAN SEA... CENTRAL CUBA CONTINUES TO GET PUMMELED WITH HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM NE FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. STRONG SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY FROM 18N-23N BETWEEN 78W-83W COVERING BOTH CENTRAL CUBA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO EXTENDS FROM S OF WRN CUBA NEAR 21N84W TO NRN HONDURAS AT 16N87W. NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACCOMPANIED BY DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN CENTERED N OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 21N69W...WHICH IS MAINTAINING MOSTLY FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. TRADEWIND FLOW OF 20-25 KTS IS PRESENT OVER THE ERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING THROUGH THE SE CARIBBEAN...BUT IS CAUSING ONLY A SMALL AREA OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FROM 13N-15N BETWEEN 65W-67W. MOIST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AND MUDSLIDES WILL REMAIN AS RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL. SHOWERS/POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SE AND S CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AS THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WWD. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE W ATLC. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE E OF THE SYSTEM IS ALONG 21N70W TO 42N66W SUPPORTING SURFACE RIDGING AROUND A 1026 MB HIGH NEAR 34N63W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE RIDGE ALONG 32N55W TO 29N60W CAUSING NO SIGNIFICANT WEATHER. THE TROUGH IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 41N40W TO 30N53W CONTINUING TO N OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 7N56W. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CENTERED OVER W AFRICA NEAR 19N9W COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGHS. A 1026 MB HIGH IS NEAR 33N40W...AND A 1028 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 34N32W. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A LARGE AREA OF SAHARAN DUST EXTENDING FROM AFRICA TO 50W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ WALTON