000 AXNT20 KNHC 220603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 205 AM EDT TUE MAY 22 2012 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS WEAKENED AND IT HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO AT 22/0300 UTC. THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO IS NEAR 30.9N 76.5W. IT IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD 11 KT. THIS POSITION ALSO IS ABOUT 245 MILES/ 390 KM TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA...AND ABOUT 305 MILES/485 KM TO THE SOUTH OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS FROM 32N TO 33N BETWEEN 74W AND 76W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 28N80W 32N67W...SURROUNDING THE FEATURE. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC...AND THE PUBLIC BULLETIN MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...TROPICAL WAVES... AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 15N20W 10N21W 6N22W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 4N TO 14N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 22W. AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 12N46W 7N49W MOVING WESTWARD 10 TO 15 KNOTS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT RUNS FROM 24N47W TO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA IS JUST TO THE WEST OF THE WAVE. ITCZ PRECIPITATION IS FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EMERGES FROM THE COAST OF MAURITANIA NEAR 17N16W TO 13N20W 5N24W 3N30W 3N33W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 3N33W TO 6N41W 8N47W...CURVING TO 7N52W AND 5N56W IN NORTHERN SURINAME. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 3N TO 5N BETWEEN 24W AND 28W AND FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 42W AND 51W. CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS FROM EARLIER AND ALREADY DISSIPATED CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...AND POSSIBLY LINGERING RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF 10N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI/ SOUTHERN ILLINOIS...AND MISSISSIPPI TOWARD WESTERN ALABAMA... INTO THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 27N88W. SEPARATE UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW MOVES FROM MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER...FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA INTO THE FLORIDA STRAITS. A NORTH-TO-SOUTH SURFACE TROUGH CUTS THROUGH FLORIDA. THE NORTHERN END OF A MOSTLY NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH REACHES THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE AREA...MOVING AROUND A 1019 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N94W. THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA... THANKS TO A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS... THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...THE WEST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA...AND HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COVERS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 18N86W...TO 20N86W 22N85W 23N84W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS TO THE NORTH OF 19N TO THE WEST OF 80W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM THE MONA PASSAGE TO THE COLOMBIA COAST NEAR 11N74W. HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE PASSES THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...AND EVENTUALLY IT REACHES 31N67W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N44W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY IS WITHIN 200 TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM 24N50W TO 18N60W 7N73W IN NORTHERN COLOMBIA. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3...FOR MORE DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS AND 10 FOOT SEA HEIGHTS RELATED TO THE 23N84W 18N86W SURFACE TROUGH. THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION CONTAINS MORE DETAILS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 28N44W TO A 24N47W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA TO THE NORTH OF 13N... MOVING AROUND A RIDGE THAT PASSES THROUGH A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N18W...TO 30N30W 30N43W...AND BEYOND A 1029 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N53W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2...FOR DETAILS ABOUT THE 20 KNOT WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS REACHING 10 FEET BETWEEN 35W AND 70W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT